| Central Asia is an extended peripheral region and has increased economic,and political significance for Pakistan.The centuries-old historical and religious ties encouraged Pakistan to prioritise Central Asia in its foreign policy that,further invigorated after the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991 and the emergence of five independent countries in Central Asia: Tajikistan,Turkmenistan,Uzbekistan,Kyrgyzstan,and Kazakhstan.Soon after their independence,Pakistan formulated economic,political,and to some extent strategic goals in the region,which have remained the same since 1991.Mainly Islamabad’s foreign policy goals in the region are driven by the trade and economic potentials of the region to diversify its trade market,import energy resources,desire to serve as an energy and interregional transit hub between South Asia and Central Asia and counter its arch-rival Indian hegemonic ambitions in the regional affairs.The specific economic interests of Pakistan includes energy security as the region has a huge amount of energy resources,bilateral trade as it has a huge potential for Pakistani goods on the one hand and import cheap raw materials,on the other hand,the interregional connectivity of South Asia and Central Asia as the country is placed on the crossroad of the two regions,and extend the CPEC to the region to connect Central Asia with the international market through Pakistani ports to became regional transit hub.Its ports are the nearest to the region.The political interests of Pakistan are to promote friendly relations with CARs to take benefit from the opportunities that Central Asia is providing for its peripheral and extended peripheral regions,to make allies because Pakistan is surrounded by rivals from three sides and to counter the Indian influence in Central Asia which is a permanent challenge to its interests in the region,to strengthen regional integration by using the platforms of ECO and SCO as a multilateral approach to strengthen its ties with CARs and take benefits from the opportunities available in Central Asia.To pursue its interests in Central Asia,Pakistan has been following a five pillars policy called “Vision Central Asia” since 1991.First,political relations;second,trade relations;third,energy security and regional connectivity;fourth,defence and security;and fifth,people-to-people connections.The primary research question that this study is answering is,why did Pakistan engage actively in Central Asia since 1991? The secondary questions are,what are the economic and political interests? And what are the challenges that Pakistan has faced in its relations with Central Asia and how can these challenges be overcome? Basically,this study is qualitative in nature.To answer these questions,the study has been conducted using the exploratory approach,the Content Analysis Technique(CAT),a recognized and properly developed method in qualitative research of social sciences.It is qualitative research.Inductive method has been used in the analysis and draw conclusion.Data for this study has been collected from secondary sources as well as primary sources are also utilized.Research papers,books,official reports,newspapers reports,online publications,magazines,booklets,press briefings,press releases,interviews and statements of officials and leaders published in local as well as international newspapers have been consulted for collecting data for this research.As the Theoretical Framework provides a specific lens or perspective to any research study through which the problem is examined,the arguments in this study are based on the theoretical framework of Complex Interdependence Theory and Regionalism Theory of International Relations.The Regionalism Theory conceptualizes the interests of Pakistan in Central Asia.At the same time,the Complex Interdependence Theory helps in conceptualizing the policy options and strategies,the nature of Islamabad’s engagement with Central Asia and the challenges it has faced.The main argument of this dissertation is that Central Asia possesses extensive geopolitical,economic,and strategic importance for its peripheral and extended peripheral regions.Pakistan’s primary and secondary interests are economic and political respectively.It possesses 2.37% oil reserves of the world,4.28% gas,4.16% Coal,17% Uranium reserves of the world,producing 45 billion kilowatts of Hydropower per year,90 billion dollars trade market,a huge market for Pakistani goods and has cheap raw materials for Pakistani industries.Being a landlocked region,it needs access to seaports,Pakistani ports are the nearest to the CARs.Pakistan is importing 80% of its energy resources,costing 2.5% of its GDP every year.Likewise,the political interests include the establishment of the regional alliance for breaking diplomatic isolation in regional affairs and countering Indian influence.These were some of the important reasons behind the formulation of interests in the region for Pakistan.At present,regionalization finds itself very important in terms of economic,political,and strategic partnerships everywhere in the world.In this regard South Asia and Central Asia also have no exception.Therefore,both Pakistan and Central Asia are interdependent.Primarily,Pakistan depends on Central Asia for energy security,trade,desire to became regional transit route and having regional allies as Pakistan is surrounded by rivals.While Central Asia is dependent on Pakistan for getting access to international market through its ports,diversify its energy export market,trade and services,and gain political support.But despite of interdependence,good working relationships,historic links,religious affiliations,and geographic closeness,the relations are yet to be improved to the potential level,and Pakistan is still not successful to fulfil its interests and take benefits from each other’s potentials.Unfortunately,the geographic hinderance,Afghan issue,New Great Game,terrorism,Indian influence in the region and lack of infrastructure are the important challenges among others that are faced by Pakistan in achieving its interests in Central Asia.Like Pakistan,many regional and extra-regional countries notably Russia,US,European Union,China,India,Turkey,and Iran have also many interests and are involved in Central Asia.Pakistan’s interests are in convergence with countries like China while in divergence with some others.The geopolitics that emerged from the divergence of interests of different players is a critical challenge for Pakistan while pursuing its interests in the region.In the near past,normalization of ties with Russia and further improvement in Sino-Pak relations as well as formulation of cooperative partnerships with Iran and Turkey have facilitated Pakistan’s interests to some extent.So,the policy options in the region for Islamabad are to preserve a good image,develop a vibrant,independent and nonaligned foreign policy towards Central Asia,strengthen political relations,frequent visits of officials and delegations,improve people o people contacts,do struggle to solve the Afghan issue,and regardless of facing challenges in Afghanistan,Pakistan should continue and try its best to complete the inter-regional connectivity projects and implement all agreements signed with CARs.This thesis has been divided into seven chapters.The first chapter introduces the research study in detail,the development of the interests of Pakistan in the region,and the approach and strategies Pakistan has adopted in the persuasion of its interests in its engagement with CARs.The chapter also highlights the determined research objectives and research questions of this thesis,main argument of the thesis,importance of the study,literature review,and the research methodology adopted in conducting the study.The second chapter “theoretical framework” provided theoretical base for the analysis of this study.The arguments and analysis of this study are based on the theoretical framework of Complex Interdependence Theory and Regionalism Theory of International Relations.The Regionalism Theory conceptualizes the interests of Pakistan in Central Asia.Pakistan’s foreign policy approach towards Central Asia is based on regionalism as the regionalism and making allies and trade partners in own respected region have proved more beneficial rather than thousands of miles away.Therefore,the theory of regionalism is also used to understand the interests of Pakistan in this region.At the same time,the Complex Interdependence Theory helps in conceptualizing the policy options and strategies,the nature of Islamabad’s engagement with Central Asia,the challenges it has faced,and analyse the situation pertaining to the ties between Islamabad and Central Asia and what can be done in order to further improve the relations between them.The third chapter explores Pakistan’s relations with each Central Asian Republic in details since their independence in 1991.This chapter first presents a general picture of their relations,and then discusses in detailing Pakistan’s bilateral political,economic,and strategic relations separately with all the five CARs,which are Tajikistan,Turkmenistan,Uzbekistan,Kyrgyzstan,and Kazakhstan.It also studies the signed bilateral and multilateral agreements,volume of bilateral trade of Pakistan with CARs from 1992 to 2020,cooperation in the fields of education,diplomacy,training of officials,joint ventures,cooperation in international organizations,defence cooperation,and areas of mutual interests.The fourth chapter explores and analyses different economic interests of Islamabad in Central Asia.It explores the energy security interest of Pakistan and the potential of CARs in this regard,the bilateral trade of Pakistan with Central Asia,the existing level of inter-regional connectivity and its prospects for both the regions,the extension of CPEC to Central Asia,and the phenomenon of the Pakistani ports making the country transit hub of the region and the dependency of Central Asia over it.Pakistan’s bilateral trade with Central Asia increased from 6.11 million dollars in 1992 to188.9 million dollars in 2020 and the trade balance is also in the favour of Pakistan.The independence of CARs,along with the Middle East’s tumultuous geopolitical environment and the world’s expanding need for energy resources,has shifted global attention to Central Asian hydrocarbon resources as a strategic option.To import energy resources from Central Asia,Pakistan has initiated many schemes like TAPI gas pipeline,TAP-500,Trans-Afghan Railway line,and CASA-1000 power transmission line.The region is energy-rich having31.246 billion barrels oil(2.37% of the world total reserves),265 trillion cubic feet gas(4.28% of the world total reserves),38,704 million short tons coal(4.16% of the world total reserves),928 thousand tons Uranium(17% of the world total reserves),and the hydroelectric potential of the region is estimated 460 billion kilowatts annually,about 90% of that capacity is untapped.Energy security is very pressing problem of the present today world,and each country is striving to secure its energy requirements.Pakistan is in desperate need of these resources in order to fulfil its needs and accelerate its economy.Apart from these energy resources,the region is also full of natural resources.Among the 118 periodic-table elements,99 are available in Central Asia.These are the factors which attracted Pakistan towards Central Asia.The chapter also looks at how the vision of regional connectivity in Central and South Asia turned into reality,and why it is necessary? Economic objectives and benefits rather than ideologies turn into increasingly leading factors in shaping common interactions and collaboration among the nations across the world.Several nations,regions,and continents are linked through land and sea corridors to form a single transnational entity.The chapter also looks at how new possibilities gave a reasonable and cost-effective trade and commerce route to landlocked CARs? As a result,how much the reciprocal trade and cooperation in commerce will further grow?The fifth chapter explains in detail the political importance of Central Asia for Pakistan and the political interests of Pakistan in the region.These are including the promotion of friendly relations with Central Asia,making CARs as allies of Islamabad in regional and global affairs,countering the influence of its arch-rival India in regional affairs as there is competition between India and Pakistan from the very beginning to become regional hegemon,making strong political relations with CARs for the facilitation of economic interests,strengthening regional integration and its related initiative like ECO in order to better utilize the opportunities for securing its foreign policy objectives,and strengthen relations with CARs by using the platform of SCO.The emergence of CARs has produced an opportunity for the peripheral and extended peripheral countries to expand their orbit of friends and partners.To take maximum benefits from the opportunity,Pakistan successfully advocated for the CARs to join the Economic Cooperation Organization in 1992.Progress and prosperity in both regions need collaborative intraregional and inter-regional cooperation,optimum use of resources,and the exploration of new transit and commerce routes.The sixth chapter explores and analyses the underlying challenges Pakistan has faced in its relations and persuasion of its interests in Central Asia.Couple of external and internal problems and challenges have hindered the engagement of Pakistan with Central Asia and limited the relations in many mutually beneficial sectors,as well as the effective use of the potentials of each other.Islamabad has also signed several agreements,treaties,and Mo Us with them to fulfil its interests,but many of them have so far proven ineffective due to couple of reasons.These challenges include the security threats created by the Afghanistan issue,terrorism and insecurity in the region,political challenges like the New Great Game and the Indian presence in the region,and the geographic challenges as Pakistan does not share direct border with any Central Asia Republic.The chapter also analyses the economic challenges and lack of infrastructure to smoothly connect the two regions,the interests of Pakistan vis-à-vis other key players in Central Asia like China,Russia,and India.The competing interests and divergence of policies of different players in the region have also affected the interests of Islamabad in Central Asia while convergence of the policies of different stakeholders of the region facilitated Pakistan’s strategies,interests,and relations with Central Asia.For example,the convergence of Sino-Pak polices have facilitated Pakistan’s interests while divergence with Indian,Iranian and to some extent Russian policies have limited Pakistan’s presence and affected its interests in the region.It also explores the previous unsuccessful policies of Pakistan in Central Asia,outlines the issues and challenges that persist.Due to the insecurity in Afghanistan,trade of Pakistan with the region is still very less as compared to the real potential,and energy importuning schemes like CASA-1000 and TAPI are still a long way off.The main goals of Islamabad in the region can be achieved when peace in Afghanistan restored.The Afghan imbroglio has affected the relations of Pakistan with Central Asia Republics in two ways.First,the inter-regional connectivity has been limited by the insecurity as the territory of Afghanistan is a bridge between the two regions.Second,Pakistan’s backing for the Taliban had resulted in policy divergence between Islamabad and Central Asian Republics.The seventh chapter concludes the whole study and provides some solid recommendation in the light of the detailed research study that how the engagement of Pakistan with Central Asia can be more result-oriented and how the interests of Pakistan can be achieved. |
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