| "Indo-Pacific Strategy" is a regional strategy launched and continued to be implemented by the United States since the Trump administration took office,and it is the top priority of the current U.S.government’s global strategy.The Trump administration released National Security Strategy(2017),National Defense Strategy(2018),and Indo-Pacific Strategy Report(2019);while the Biden administration released the Interim National Security Strategic Guidance(2021),Indo-Pacific Strategy(2022)and the National Security Strategy(2022),These reports clearly describe the U.S."Indo-Pacific Strategy".Based on the content of these reports and the relevant speeches of U.S.leaders,we can basically grasp the two main purposes of U.S"Indo-Pacific Strategy"issued by the United States are to contain China and maintain order in the"Indo-Pacific region" under the leadership of the United States.Areas of the Asia Pacific region and the Indian Ocean region are important for China’s peripheral diplomacy so the U.S."Indo-Pacific strategy" has negative impacts on China.A full study of the influencing factors of U.S."Indo-Pacific Strategy" implement is conducive to China’s comprehensive response.Therefore,it is of great research value to study influencing factors of U.S."Indo-Pacific Strategy"implement through the theoretical framework of international politics.The Neoclassical realist theory is the theory that analyzes the process of foreign policy formulation,especially applicable to the study of the diplomatic strategies of major powers.This theory suggests that states,based on the stimulation and influence of the international system,implementing foreign policies through.the intervention of domestic factors,thereby generating international influence.Among them,the stimulus of the international system is primary independent variable,including three elements of international system structure,clarity,and the nature of a state’s strategic environment;the factors of domestic level are intermediary variables or intervention variables,including leader images,strategic cultures,state-society relations and domestic institutions.The policy and its international outcomes are two dependent variables.This framework is applicable to the research on the influencing factors of U.S."Indo-Pacific Strategy" implement.Under this theoretical framework,after being stimulated by the independent variable international system,the U.S.government is influenced by intervening variables such as U.S.leader images,U.S.strategic cultures,U.S.state-society relations,and U.S.domestic institutions.In the end,the "Indo-Pacific Strategy"is launched by the U.S.government,and the implementation of the "Indo-Pacific Strategy"will have certain international impacts.In this way,the neoclassical realism analysis model of the implementation of U.S."Indo-Pacific Strategy" has been constructed.The Neoclassical realist theory adheres to the core of realist theory,which is,the international system is the fundamental and primary starting point for states to launch foreign policies.In terms of the factors affecting the system structure of the U.S."Indo-Pacific Strategy" decision,the relative power balance of the system structure and the changes in the order of the Aisa-Pacific region,as well as the two "structural modifiers" of geography and technology(science technology and military technology)are considered.In terms of clarity,it can be found from the following these aspects:the identifiable degree of "threats",the identifiable degree of opportunities,the time horizons of "threats" and opportunities,and the optimal policy options before the United States launched and continued to implement the"Indo-Pacific Strategy".As a result,the United States perceives its external "threats" and opportunities with high clarity.In terms of the nature of the state’s strategic environment,the United States thinks its strategic environment is becoming more "restrictive",and the threats and opportunities faced by the United States are of high urgency and intensity.Stimulated by the international system,domestic intermediary variables affect policy implement process of U.S."Indo-Pacific strategy".In terms of leader images,the decision of the U.S."Indo-Pacific Strategy" is highly related to the images of leaders involved in national security affairs such as the presidents,secretaries of state,secretaries of defense,and national security advisers both of the Trump and Biden administrations.In terms of strategic culture,traditional American realism,idealism,allianceism,the return of Jacksonianism,and the rise of conservative internationalism have important impacts on the decision and implement of U.S.the "Indo-Pacific Strategy".In terms of state-society relations,the support by all walks of life from the American public,companies,think tanks and scholars is an important reason for the continued implementation of the "Indo-Pacific Strategy".In terms of domestic institutions,the launch of the "Indo-Pacific strategy" is closely related to the system of presidential republic,the system of separation of powers,and two-party system.Among them,the images of leader of the United States government play decisive role in the domestic factors of U.S."Indo-Pacific strategy",The domestic institutions of the United States play important roles,The state-social relations of the United States plays a secondary important role,and the unique strategic culture of the United States plays a secondary but not negligible role.Based on the influences from the elements of international and domestic levels,the U.S.governments finally launch and implement continuously the "Indo-Pacific Strategy",which is one of the "dependent variable" of the neoclassical realism policy analysis model of the U.S."Indo-Pacific Strategy".Both the Trump administration and the Biden administration launched their own "Indo-Pacific strategy" during their tenure.There are high degree of correlation between Trump’s "Indo-Pacific strategy" and the Obama administration’s"Asia-Pacific Rebalancing strategy" and between the Biden administration’s and Trump administration’s "Indo-Pacific strategy".At the same time,the United States has greatly tilted its own construction focus to the "Indo-Pacific",and has greatly expanded its investment in the "Indo-Pacific",both economically and militarily.Thirdly,the U.S."Indo-Pacific Strategy"takes strengthening the alliance and partnership in the "Indo-Pacific region" as its core path,including strengthening bilateral and multilateral relationship with allies and partners in the"Indo-Pacific" and trans-regional.In the end,relying on its operations and construction in all aspects of the "Indo-Pacific region",the United States has adopted a major-country competition strategy of "comprehensive containment" and "selective engagement" in parallel,with comprehensive competition with China at its core.The international outcome of strategy implementation are referred to the other dependent variable of the neoclassical realism policy analysis model of the U.S."Indo-Pacific Strategy".U.S."Indo-Pacific Strategy" focuses on countering China and basically involves major international actors in the international system including powers of the Asia-Pacific region,the Indian Ocean region and European region.It has significant impacts on China,the"Indo-Pacific" region as well as the world.Furthermore,it is necessary to predict and analyze the future development prospects of the Strategy in advance,which is extremely important for grasping the future development of Sino-US relations and China’s surrounding situation.In view of the impact and the future direactions of U.S."Indo-Pacific Strategy",China should response timely and make effective measures to deal with the U.S."Indo-Pacific strategy",starting from the aspects of international environment,Sino-US Relationship and the construction of China’s security and defense forces. |
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