| Since the 18 th National Congress of the CPC,China has made historic achievements in poverty reduction by the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at the core.Absolute poverty has been completely eliminated by 2020.However,the problem of returning to poverty has a long history and occurs from time to time.It has been staged in different stages and regions.In particular,it is difficult for the formerly deep poverty-stricken areas to consolidate and expand the achievements in overcoming poverty with their weak foundation.The goal of shaking off poverty is not temporary,but permanent.The problem of returning to poverty is characterized by the specificity of the subject,the space-time nature of the growth,the dynamic nature of the process,the complexity of the causes,the seriousness of the hazards and other attributes.In essence,returning to poverty and poor households still have different connotations,which in turn determine different governance logic.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to track and monitor,scientifically assess the effectiveness of poverty alleviation,accurately identify the risk of poverty return,clearly sort out the risk factors and poverty-causing mechanism.Then on the basis of this,put forward the supporting strategies for later development,and take effective measures to control the phenomenon of poverty return,in order to consolidate and expand the achievements of poverty alleviation and development,and realize the revitalization of villages.The thesis takes Linxia Hui Autonomous Prefecture in Gansu Province(hereinafter referred to as "Linxia Prefecture")as the research area.The main research objects of the paper are the original documented households and the marginal households prone to poverty in this area.The five theoretical bases of this paper are General Secretary Xi Jinping’s important though on strengthening and improving ethnic work,Macro-poverty trap theory,relevant theories of micro individual vulnerability,risk management theory and resilience management theory.Along the historical to practical dimension,this paper combs the process and achievements of poverty alleviation and development in Linxia Prefecture,and describes its historical situation and characteristics of poverty return.Meanwile,the paper explores the measurement methods and risk status of poverty return risk in Linxia Prefecture,analyzes the causes and puts forward suggestions.The main findings of the study are as follows:First,Linxia has achieved remarkable results in poverty alleviation and development and formed a number of typical models and cases.By consulting and combing all kinds of working documents,statistical yearbooks and statistical bulletins at all levels,this paper analyzes the poverty alleviation strategic priorities and major poverty alleviation effects of Linxia Prefecture in six stages,namely,the stage of promoting the system reform,the stage of large-scale poverty alleviation,the stage of the "Seven-Year Plan" poverty alleviation,the stage of comprehensive poverty alleviation,the crucial stage of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" and the decisive stage of the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan".Using the method of statistical analysis of data,this paper sums up the remarkable achievements of its poverty alleviation and development from the following four aspects: the historical elimination of regional absolute poverty,the overall economic and social development,the obvious improvement of people’s production and living conditions,and the continuous improvement of local governance.In addition,the typical model and vivid cases of poverty alleviation and development in Linxia Prefecture were extracted and summarized during the visit and investigation.Second,Linxia Prefecture’s historical poverty phenomenon exists objectively and has common and individual characteristics.Through a large number of data analysis and field research interviews,we can understand the historical situation and characteristics of poverty return in Linxia Prefecture.Combined with the questionnaire survey of farmers and supporting cadres on the possible risk of poverty return in the future,we can clarify the types and risk sources of poverty return risk in this area.The study found that the phenomenon of returning to poverty in Linxia Prefecture has several characteristics,such as large difference in years,large regional difference,multiple incentives for returning to poverty,and multiple main causes for returning to poverty from the county and township levels.From the perspective of individual households,low education level,small number of labor force,low quality and poor overall health level of households are the main internal factors that cause the poverty-stricken population to return to poverty.Third,the risk of poverty return in Linxia Prefecture is generally low,with economic capital and human capital accounting for a large proportion.Considering the advantages and disadvantages of the existing risk measurement models for returning to poverty,combining with the actual situation of Linxia Prefecture,and referring to the livelihood vulnerability analysis framework,the index system and model of risk measurement for returning to poverty in Linxia Hui Autonomous Prefecture are revised and established.By introducing the survey data into the poverty return risk measurement model,the analysis shows that the sample farmers’ weighted comprehensive poverty return risk index is between 0.335 and22.504,with an average value of 3.796,which is relatively low.The two highest risk categories are economic capital risk and human capital risk.The weakness of economic capital and the lack of human capital are the main factors that cause the high risk of returning to poverty of sample farmers in Linxia Prefecture.For the sample farmers with different livelihood strategies,there are great differences in the risk of returning to poverty among the sample farmers with farming-oriented,work-oriented,subsidy-dependent,and multi-industry concurrently engaged.Fourthly,the risk of returning to poverty in Linxia Prefecture is caused by various factors,mainly economic,human and natural factors.Based on the analysis of previous history and the results of poverty return risk measurement,this paper analyzes the top three poverty return risk in Linxia Prefecture.Meanwile,we find out that the causes of these kinds of risk of returning to poverty are from various aspects.The research thinks that the main reason for the risk of economic capital returning to poverty in Linxia Prefecture lies in the backward overall economic development level and the low income structure level;The foundation of the financial and insurance environment is weak and the support system is not sound;The industrial development has insufficient driving effect and the growth potential is slightly weak;The situation of mutual benefit and win-win for external assistance is not extensive,and the leverage effect of capital is insufficient.The main reason for its high risk of human capital falling back into poverty is the outstanding shortage of population culture and the insufficient guarantee of human capital.Medical and education are relatively lagging behind and social supply and security are inadequate;The change of market concept is slow and there are problems in increasing income from various sources.Lack of self-development capability makes it more difficult to stabilize input.The main reasons for the high risk of its natural capital returning to poverty are the constraints of geographical location,the impact of frequent natural disasters,the limited potential of resource utilization and the new risk challenges caused by the COVID-19 epidemic.In view of the above findings,this paper puts forward suggestions on the establishment of a long-term stable anti-poverty mechanism in Linxia Prefecture from six aspects: first,to move forward and pay attention to the dynamic monitoring of the risk of returning to poverty;Second,it is necessary to deepen the "blood circulation" mechanism,through the development of industry and the stability of employment,the two major external helping engines,to achieve sustained and stable income growth for farmers through multi-measures and multi-pronged approach;The third is to strengthen the "blood-making" mechanism,to strengthen the confidence and determination to become rich and the energy to start a business by "strengthening one’s ambition",and to increase one’s life skills and ability to shake off poverty and become rich by "strengthening one’s intelligence";Fourthly,the "blood transfusion" mechanism should be refined.Through the refinement and improvement of the minimum living guarantee and other relief systems,the small number of farmers who have basically lost or completely lost their ability to work should be guaranteed to live.Through the improvement of the medical security system,the burden of medical treatment on the population should be effectively reduced and the health quality of the whole population should be improved.Fifthly,the "encirclement expansion" mechanism should be optimized,considering not only the multiple mobilization of internal and external forces,but also the multiple participation,so as to strengthen,consolidate and expand the sources of forces at macro,meso and micro levels;The sixth is to focus on the long term,explore the long-term mechanism of "poverty alleviation and revitalization",realize the change and transformation from absolute poverty to relative poverty,adjust and rebuild from preferential policies to inclusive policies,reconstruct and optimize from short-term tasks to long-term planning,and guarantee and strengthen from micro-implementation to top-level design,so as to ensure that the risk of poverty return in Linxia Prefecture is at a very low level in the long term from deep promotion. |
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