| From 2001 to 2017,it took only 15 years for China to go from aging to deep aging.The transition from overall aging to regional aging shows obvious compression characteristics.The transition from overall aging before getting rich to regional aging before getting rich has become a new challenge for the aging challenge.Regional economic growth is an important part of Public Governance on the supply side in the new era.The development of elderly labor resources is an inevitable requirement to actively respond to the population aging strategy.However,although the number of the elderly population is the largest in China,the degree of labor value development is relatively low.The positive impact of the labor value of the elderly population on the regional economy has not been paid enough attention.This study assumes that the labor value of the elderly exists and forms a certain scale,and analyzes the impact of the labor value of the elderly on the growth stock and labor productivity of eight major economic regions,including Beijing Tianjin Hebei and the Yangtze River Delta,by collecting China’s inter provincial macro data and using measurement methods such as generalized moment estimation.And try to re divide and test the aging region by constructing four new indicators: the elderly medical expenditure,the proportion of the elderly population,the pension burden challenge and the population urbanization challenge.At the same time,in order to assess the development potential of the regional labor value of the elderly,this study also conducted a logistic regression analysis on the influencing factors of the active aging of the elderly in China through the charls2015 micro data,taking the family structure,urban-rural differences,inter-generational care labor and other dimensions,and conducted a robustness test based on the combination of subjective and objective health and family size.Based on this,a regional active aging scoring model is constructed,and the potential of each region is calculated and evaluated.The results show that the development of labor value of the elderly has a significant positive impact on China’s overall economy and the economic growth of the five provinces of North China,Sichuan,Beijing and Chongqing,and the increase of dependency ratio has no negative impact on the labor productivity of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei.The deepening of aging has a significant negative impact on the regional economic growth along the coast of East China and the central part of Henan,Hubei and Hunan.In the face of the significant negative impact of the increase of pension burden and children’s burden,developing the labor value of the elderly is an important and feasible path.The development conditions of elderly resources in Beijing Tianjin Hebei,Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta are relatively mature,and the development needs of elderly resources in Northeast and northwest regions are more urgent.The overall level of active aging in China is low.The population age structure,regional education level,urbanization level and family care level constitute the scoring model of regional active aging.The provinces with the highest scores are Beijing,Tianjin and Shanghai,and the provinces with the lowest scores are Anhui,Guizhou and Sichuan.Twelve provinces in the East,five provinces in North China(Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei),Pearl River Delta,Yangtze River Delta,high elderly ratio,areas with less challenges to pension burden and population urbanization,have great potential for the development of labor value of the elderly.The summary of experience in the development of labor value for the elderly includes the early warning stage in 2001,the response stage in 2010 and the coordination stage in 2017.The subregions include four regions: profit regions,challenge regions,favorable regions and guarantee regions.In the future,we should fully grasp the development opportunity period from 2022 to 2035 and make preparations for a protracted war to actively deal with population aging. |
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