Research On Risk Coupling And Risk Assessment Of Network Public Opinion Group Polarization In Emergencies

In recent years,various emergencies have occurred frequently,causing great harm to the safety of people’s lives and property,and seriously affecting national security and social stability.The group polarization of emergency network public opinion is one of the results of the evolution of public opinion,which is of great social harm and complex research process.Especially at the moment when the social public opinion environment is constantly changing,false information and extreme information are spread in the Internet at a high speed,in a large range and without restrictions.Most public opinion participants cannot identify false information in a timely and effective manner,nor can they control their own emotions against extreme information,which leads to a significant increase in the frequency of group polarization.For example,the phenomenon of group polarization in the network public opinion of "July 23 Yong Wen Line Particularly Serious Railway Traffic Accident" seriously disturbed the order of public opinion and intensified social conflicts to a large extent.It can be seen that group polarization has become an important public opinion issue that seriously affects public opinion life on the Internet.It is urgent to propose scientific and effective guiding theory,research methods and prevention strategies for group polarization.The risk inducing factors and the concrete expression of the group polarization of the network public opinion in emergencies are very complex and chaotic,and the risk points and risk prevention are distributed in the physical space,social space and information space.In the ternary space,each group polarization risk factor follows a certain coupling mechanism and produces different forms of group polarization potential risk,and finally forms group polarization under the coupling driving mechanism.However,there are some deficiencies in the existing research,such as narrow theoretical research perspective,ignoring the mutual mapping and energy transfer of physical space,social space and information space,and the lack of systematic research on social risk of group polarization.Therefore,this paper studies the risk of group polarization of network public opinion in emergencies from the perspective of ternary space information view,excavates the coupling mechanism and coupling driving mechanism of group polarization of network public opinion in emergencies,and carries out systematic research on group polarization risk identification,risk assessment,and risk prevention.It is expected to effectively solve many theoretical and practical problems in the current emergency management of network public opinion of emergencies,transform the emergency management of network public opinion of emergencies with sparse entry points into the specific situation governance of physical space,social space and information space,and link the network public opinion information of emergencies with large data forms in time and space,so as to promote the development of emergency management of network public opinion of emergencies.First of all,this paper analyzes the characteristics of the group polarization risk of the network public opinion of emergencies in combination with the characteristics of emergencies,and on this basis deconstructs the group polarization risk of the network public opinion of emergencies in the ternary space,clarifying the manifestation of the group polarization risk of the network public opinion of emergencies in the physical space,social space,and information space.And on the basis of fully grasping the formation power of group polarization,the characteristics,movement process and development trend of network public opinion of emergencies,the structural framework of group polarization risk of network public opinion of emergencies in the ternary space is reconstructed,and the operation mode and transmission mechanism of group polarization risk are analyzed.Secondly,following the research logic from representation to mechanism,we begin to elaborate the coupling mechanism and coupling driving mechanism of group polarization risk.Combined with the deconstruction of the group polarization risk of network public opinion in the three-dimensional space and the classification of network public opinion elements,the risk factors are divided into situational event elements,government response elements,user characteristics elements,user interaction elements,information attribute elements,and media effectiveness elements.This paper expounds the different risk coupling caused by the interaction of various causative factors,including the directional coupling and indirect coupling of risk,the mutual coupling of user interaction,and the parameter coupling of out-of-order information,and depicts the coupling mechanism of the group polarization risk of network public opinion in emergencies.However,in fact,although the coupling mechanism reveals the deep and essential reasons for the risk of group polarization,it cannot show the inevitability of the formation of group polarization.Group polarization will occur only when multiple forms of risk interact.Therefore,we will continue to discuss the driving mechanism of group polarization coupling of network public opinion in emergencies from the perspective of ternary spatial information view.On the macro level,physical space,social space and information space form a fully connected network as waveguide oscillators that transmit energy;At the micro level,research has confirmed that social network is a typical scale-free network.Therefore,combined with the theory of complex dynamic network synchronization,the characteristics of complex dynamic network of group polarization and the coupling drive,the synchronization and synchronization state and stable state of complex dynamic network of group polarization are analyzed,and the necessary and sufficient conditions for synchronization of complex dynamic network of group polarization are discussed.Thirdly,based on the theoretical analysis of group polarization risk of network public opinion in emergencies,the application research of group polarization risk identification and evaluation is carried out.Under the condition that extreme view is the core element of group polarization,the TCMCR identification model of extreme view is constructed to identify the risk of group polarization and conduct empirical research.According to the risk coupling mechanism,the measurement index system is constructed for each type of elements distributed in the ternary space.The AHPSort II method is used to build the group polarization risk assessment model of network public opinion in emergencies and carry out empirical research.The group polarization risk level is evaluated to achieve the scientific classification of risk.Finally,on the basis of the research on the risk identification and risk assessment of the group polarization of the network public opinion in emergencies,taking the connotation elements of the group polarization as the entry point,combining the coupling mechanism and coupling driving mechanism of the group polarization risk,this paper summarizes and proposes the prevention and resolution strategies of the group polarization risk of the network public opinion in emergencies.In theoretical research,this paper deepens the coupling mechanism and coupling driving mechanism of group polarization of network public opinion in emergencies from the perspective of ternary space information,and further advances the scientific and systematic evolution of group polarization based on existing research.In terms of application research,this paper has realized the whole process research on social risks of group polarization of network public opinion in emergencies,including risk identification,risk assessment and risk prevention.Among them,risk identification realizes the judgment of whether group polarization risk appears,and risk assessment is to classify the risk level types on the basis of risk identification.The risk identification and risk assessment research carried out in order excludes the possibility that the risk assessment model in the existing research can also obtain the calculation results for the network public opinion data without the risk of group polarization.On the premise of the existence of group polarization risk and the definition of group polarization risk level type,risk prevention is to put forward strategies to prevent and resolve group polarization risk by closely surrounding the risk coupling mechanism and coupling driving mechanism of emergency network public opinion group polarization,thus ensuring the scientificity and rationality of the proposed strategies.