| Against the background of the double threat of “re-industrial strategy” of western developed countries and the gradual disappearance of traditional competitive advantages of China’s manufacturing industry,intelligent manufacturing has become a necessary path for China’s manufacturing industry to transform and upgrade,improve quality and efficiency.As an automatically controlled,reprogrammable(with at least three reprogrammable axes)multifunctional operator,the number of industrial robots used in China has shown explosive growth as a key device for intelligent manufacturing.Nevertheless,the rapid progress and large-scale application of industrial robot technology inevitably have a significant impact on the labor market while advancing the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure and promoting high-quality economic development.In this context,on the basis of combing and referring to existing domestic and foreign researches,this paper combined two methods of theoretical analysis and empirical research to systematically explore the employment effect of industrial robot application from three aspects of total employment,employment structure,and employment quality,with the aim of revealing the overall picture of the employment effect of industrial robot application and clarifying its micro-mechanisms.This paper not only helps to rationally and comprehensively understand the employment effect of industrial robot application,but also contributes to provide theoretical basis and empirical evidence for China to formulate and improve employment promotion policies.The specific research contents and conclusions are as follows:Firstly,this paper analyzes the impact of the application of industrial robots on total employment.In this paper,the assumption of fixed labor supply in the traditional task model is relaxed,and a labor demand-supply model is constructed to provide a theoretical framework for analyzing the impact of industrial robot application on total employment.Then,based on the data of China Labor-Force Dynamics Survey from 2012 to 2016,the impact of industrial robot application on total employment is empirically examined from the perspectives of employment stock and employment flow by using micro-econometric models such as logit model and panel logit fixed effect model.The results show that:(1)The application of industrial robots has a significant positive impact on total employment,that is to say that the application of industrial robots in China at the present stage does not lead to large-scale unemployment,but rather promotes labor employment.(2)The application of industrial robots has a significant positive impact on employment inflows and a significant negative impact on employment outflows,that is to say that the positive impact of the application of industrial robots on total employment not only from the positive impact of the application of industrial robots on employment inflows,but also from the inhibitory effect of the application of industrial robots on employment outflows.(3)The positive impact of industrial robot application on employment of low-skilled labor,female labor,and youth labor is more pronounced.(4)The positive impact of the application of industrial robots on total employment is not due to the fact that “the positive impact of industrial robot application on service industry employment covers up its negative impact on manufacturing industry employment”,nor is it due to the fact that “the wage level of labor taking up the employment substitution effect of industrial robot application”.Secondly,compared with total employment,the impact of industrial robot application on employment structure is more pronounced.In addition,inter-occupation reallocation is an important way for labor force to cope with the employment shocks of technological advances,thus this paper further focuses on the impact of the application of industrial robots on the occupation structure of employment.By constructing an occupation-level task model,and considering the impact of industrial robot application on occupational task requirements and human capital investment,this paper provides a theoretical analysis framework for the impact of industrial robot application on the occupation structure of employment.Then,based on the data of China Labor-Force Dynamics Survey from 2012 to 2016,the logit model,multiple sample selection bias correction model,extended probit and other micro-econometric models are applied to provide empirical evidence on how industrial robot application affects the occupation structure of employment from the perspective of labor occupation choice.The results show that:(1)Compared with other occupations,the application of industrial robots can significantly increase the probability of workers becoming production operators.(2)There is obvious heterogeneity in the impact of industrial robot application on labor occupation choice,which mainly helps to improve the probability of low-skilled labor,female labor,and young labor and old labor becoming production operators.(3)Mechanism analysis reveals that,on the one hand,the application of industrial robots can significantly reduce the physical demands of commercial service workers and production operators,and significantly increase the mental demands of professional and technical workers,clerical workers and commercial service workers;on the other hand,the application of industrial robots significantly reduces the probability of labor participation in skills training,especially for low-skilled labor and elderly labor.Therefore,the dual effect of industrial robot application increasing the mental demands of occupational tasks and discouraging investment in human capital of labor leads to a greater tendency for vulnerable groups in the labor market to cluster in the occupation of production operators.Thirdly,inter-regional reallocation is also an important channel for labor to cope with the employment shocks of technological advances,thus this paper further focuses on the impact of the application of industrial robots on the spatial structure of employment.By extending the traditional task model to a two-sector model,this paper provides a theoretical framework to analyze the impact of industrial robot application on the spatial structure of employment.Then,based on the data of China Migrants Dynamic Survey in 2018,a variety of micro-econometric models such as logit model and multiple logit model are used to provide empirical evidence on how the application industrial robots affects the spatial structure of employment from the perspective of labor mobility intentions.The results show that:(1)The application of industrial robots helps to reduce labor mobility intentions,but do not help increase the long-term residence intentions.(2)The application of industrial robots can reduce the labor mobility intentions by creating more employment opportunities and increasing labor wages.(3)There is significant individual heterogeneity and regional heterogeneity in the impact of industrial robot application on labor mobility intentions.Specifically,the application of industrial robots mainly helps to reduce the mobility intentions of middle-skilled labor,female labor,lower-aged labor and migrant workers,and mainly helps to reduce the mobility intentions of labor in areas with higher levels of information technology,openness of household registration,and social security.Finally,labor employment not only has the concept of quantity level,but also has the meaning of quality level.In order to reveal the overall picture of the impact of industrial robot application on employment,based on the data of China labor-Force Dynamics Survey from 2012 to 2016,this paper constructs a comprehensive index of employment quality to systematically explores the impact of industrial robot application on labor employment quality from two perspectives: the comprehensive level of employment quality and the subdivision dimension of employment quality.The results show that:(1)the application of industrial robots can improve the comprehensive level of employment quality.Specifically,the application of industrial robots not only helps to improve the wages and job stability,but also helps to improve the subjective job satisfaction,but is not conducive to reducing the work intensity and improving the level of welfare protection.(2)The application of industrial robots has the most obvious improvement effect on the employment quality of high-skilled labor,followed by middle-skilled labor,while the improvement effect on the employment quality of low-skilled labor is statistically insignificant.(3)Mechanism analysis shows that the introduction of industrial robots into the production process can promote the improvement of employment quality by improving the value of work,labor productivity and work safety and environment.(4)Participation in skills training can help the labor adapt to the changing market demand for skills and make them better able to enjoy the impact of improving employment quality brought by industrial robot application.Moreover,low-skilled workers gain more significantly by participating in skills training than high-skilled workers,which helps mitigate the trend of widening the gap in employment quality between workers with different skills due to the application of industrial robots.In this paper,the employment effect of industrial robot application is systematically explored from the perspectives of total employment,employment structure and employment quality.And at present,the application of industrial robots in China not only does not lead to large-scale unemployment,but also helps to improve employment quality of labor.However,the application of industrial robots is mainly conducive to improving the employment quality of high-skilled labor.Meanwhile,as the application of industrial robots increases the mental demand of most occupations and hinders the accumulation of human capital,the vulnerable groups in the labor market are more concentrated in the occupations facing high automation risk,such as production operators.Therefore,the state should vigorously encourage the application of intelligent equipment such as industrial robots to empower traditional manufacturing and promote intelligent manufacturing,in order to promote the realization of the strategic goal of manufacturing power,thereby providing more high-quality employment opportunities.At the same time,the state should actively promote the upgrading of education and training system to improve the competitive advantage of labor in order to cope with the changes in market demand.Last but not least,the state should also actively improve social security to counter the negative impact of the application of intelligent devices,such as industrial robots,to maintain social stability and promote high-quality and healthy economic development. |
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