Impact Of Industrial Robots On Employment And Income Of Urban Migrant Workers

Since the reform and opening up,China’s manufacturing industry has embedded itself into the global industrial value chain with the advantage of cheap labor costs,created the "China miracle" of rapid economic growth for more than 30 years,and laid a solid foundation for China’s "World Manufacturing Power".However,since the beginning of the 21 st century,China’s advantage of "Demographic Dividend" has gradually diminished,and the aging population has become more and more serious.Besides,"Shortage of Ordinary Workers" and "Difficulty in Recruiting Skilled Workers" have rising in the coastal areas.The formulation and increase of the minimum wage standard have protected the legitimate rights and interests of workers,but it has enhanced the labor cost.The fourth industrial revolution,which the industrial robots are the core driving force has grown vigorously and became an important force to deal with the increasing growth of labor cost,achieve the transformation and upgrading of the industry structure and promote China’s transformation from a "manufacturing power" to a "manufacturing power" with its overwhelming advantages in price,efficiency and performance.China has successfully issued The Guidance to Promote the Development of Industrial Robots Industry,Made in China 2025,The Development Plan for the Robotics Industry(2016-2020)and other policies to promote the large-scale demonstration and application of industrial robots in important production fields.The report of the 19 th National Congress further defined the development target of "speeding the construction of a manufacturing power and accelerating the development of advanced manufacturing".With the rapid development of machine replacement,what impact will happen between industrial robots and the labor market of urban migrant workers? What is the impact on the migrant workers’ employment structure in the manufacturing industry with the highest installation density of industrial robots? Will the employment of low skilled migrant workers decrease and the employment of high skilled migrant workers in the manufacturing industry increase? If the non-manufacturing industry of secondary industry,and low-end service industry can absorb more low-skilled migrant workers in the manufacturing industry,what will happen to the employment structure of urban migrant workers in the non-manufacturing industry? The industrial robots can change the labor market structure of urban migrant workers and adjust the income distribution of migrant workers,what effect will it have on the income of urban migrant workers in the manufacturing industry? What effect will it have on the income of urban migrant workers in the non-manufacturing industry of secondary industry and low-end service industry? Will it widen or narrow the income gap of urban migrant workers? To answer these questions,this paper will make a theoretical analysis and empirically investigated the impact of industrial robots on the employment and income of urban migrant workers,and analyze its heterogeneous impact of urban migrant workers from the view of industry,skills and occupation.The research contents and relevant conclusions of this paper are as follows:Content 1: impact of urban migrant workers’ employment in the manufacturing industry.The objective of this part is to determine the impact of industrial robots on the urban migrant workers’ employment in the manufacturing industry.The empirical analysis has conducted between the impact of industrial robots and the urban migrant workers’ employment in the manufacturing industry using the matching database of China Migrants Dynamic Survey data and International Robot Alliance.The results show that the employment of urban migrant workers in the manufacturing industry decrease by 3.48 percent for every one unit rise of the installation density of industrial robots.In 2018,the replacement of machine to labor reduces the employment of urban migrant workers by 4.98 million in the manufacturing industry,especially in the labor-intensive and capital-intensive manufacturing industry,medium and low skills and routine operational occupation rural migrant workers in the manufacturing industry,which demonstrates that the industrial robots are a kind of skill biased technological progress.Besides,it has significant negative effect between the industrial robots and the employment of urban migrant workers in the manufacturing industry in the areas of higher nationalization and marketization and lower urban unemployment and labor protection.Content 2: impact of the urban migrant workers’ employment in the non-manufacturing secondary industry.The objective of this part is to determine the impact of industrial robots on the urban migrant workers’ employment in the non-manufacturing secondary industry.The results show that for every one unit rise of the installation density of industrial robots,the employment of urban migrant workers increases by 1.55 percent in the non-manufacturing industry of secondary industry and increases by 1.35 percent in the low-end service industry.It means that the employment of urban migrant workers will enhance 2.00 percent,which equals to 0.12 million in the non-manufacturing industry of secondary industry and enhance1.74 percent,which equals to 0.19 million in the low-service industry in 2018.Content 3: impact of the urban migrant workers’ income in the manufacturing industry.The objective of this part is to determine the impact of industrial robots on the income of urban migrant workers in the manufacturing industry.The results indicated that the monthly income of urban migrant workers decrease by 1.48 percent in the manufacturing industry for every one unit rise of the installation density of industrial robots.It means that the monthly income of urban migrant workers will reduce 1.91 percent,which equals to 69.06 yuan in the manufacturing industry in 2018.It reduces the income of urban migrant workers in the labor-intensive manufacturing industry,low and medium skill and operational occupation in the manufacturing industry.Besides,it increases capital-intensive and technology-intensive manufacturing industry.Content 4: impact of the urban migrant workers’ income in the non-manufacturing secondary industry.The objective of this part is to determine the impact of industrial robots on the urban migrant workers’ income in the non-manufacturing industry of secondary industry.The results indicated that the monthly income of urban migrant workers decrease by 1.77 percent in the non-manufacturing industry of secondary industry and decrease by 1.88 percent in the low-end service industry for every one unit rise of the installation density of industrial robots in the manufacturing industry.It means that the monthly income of urban migrant workers reduces by 2.28 percent in the non-manufacturing industry of secondary industry,which equals to 94.02 yuan in 2018.Besides,the monthly income of urban migrant workers reduces by 2.28 percent in the low-end service industry,which equals to 79.19 yuan in 2018.Content 5: impact of the urban migrant workers’ income distribution.The objective of this part is to determine the impact of industrial robots on the urban migrant workers’ income distribution.The results indicated that the industrial robots expand the income gap of urban migrant workers in the manufacturing industry,especially laborintensive and capital-intensive manufacturing industry,medium and low skills and routine operational occupation rural migrant workers in the manufacturing industry.It expands the income gap of urban migrant workers between the manufacturing industry and the nonmanufacturing industry and between the manufacturing industry and the low-end service industry.In the whole,it expands the overall income gap of urban migrant workers.According to the above research contents,some conclusions are drawn that: With the gradual expansion of the application scope and depth of industrial robots,the industrial robots decrease the employment of medium and low skilled urban migrant workers in the manufacturing industry and increase the employment of medium and low skilled migrant workers in the non-manufacturing industry.Besides,it improves the income of high skilled urban migrant workers and reduce the income of low skilled urban migrant workers,which expands the income gap of urban migrant workers.In view of the above research contents,some policy suggestions are putting forward from the perspective of dealing with the technical unemployment of urban migrant workers and promoting the adequate employment of urban migrant workers.The government should improve the unemployment insurance-based and commercial insurance-supplemented of unemployment insurance system for migrant workers;promote the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure and guarantee the transfer and undertaking of industrial workers;enhance the multi-dimensional training system of job training,qualification training and certificate training;support the construction of functional productive service centers supporting manufacturing bases;support flexible employment forms and encourage migrant workers to return to their hometowns for employment and business and increase migrant workers’ ability to better cope with the new round of scientific and technological revolution.