Research On The Influence Of Technical Factors On The Economic Development Gap Of Agricultural Region

Since the reform and opening up,although China’s agricultural economy has achieved considerable development,it has faced serious regional economic development imbalances.Among the five major regions of East China,Northeast China,North China,Central China,and Northwest China in 2018,the highest per capita agricultural output value was 2.36 times that of the lowest.The coefficient of variation of per capita agricultural output increased from 0.58 in 1978 to 0.93 in 2018.Neoclassical economics regards endogenous technological progress as a long-term factor of economic growth,and believes that technological progress can prevent the production factors in the region from diminishing marginal returns,thereby creating a regional economic development gap.Although the existing research shows that technological progress will affect the regional economic development gap in a direct or indirect manner,there are still three shortcomings:first,a systematic research framework for the effect of technological progress on the regional economic development gap has not been established;second,the research on the effect of progress on the regional economic development gap has not formed a unified view;third,few studies have used provincial and municipal data to examine the effect of technological progress on the agricultural regional economic development gap.Based on the perspective of broad factor flow,this thesis uses the data of 21 cities in Guangdong Province from 1993 to 2018 to discuss the industrial structure path and factor flow path of the effect of technological progress on the economic development gap of agricultural regions.Combining existing theories and literature,this thesis builds a research framework for technological progress on agricultural regional economic development gaps:first,it examines the evolution of agricultural regional economy and reflects the regional gaps in agricultural economic development more objectively;second,it traces the roots of technological progress of agricultural regions and measure the technological progress of agricultural regions;third,it examines the actual effect of agricultural technological progress on the economic development gap of agricultural regions through industrial structure and factor flow;fourth,it examines the long-term relationship between the agricultural technological progress gap and the agricultural regional economic gap and control the long-term balance of the mechanism path.The main conclusions of this thesis are as follows:(1)Use the Theil index and other methods to measure the economic development gap of agricultural regions,and conduct convergence analysis.The empirical results show that,first,Guangdong’s agricultural regional economic development gap has obvious stage characteristics,which can be roughly divided into the 1993-1998 gap reduction phase,the1999-2008 gap expansion phase,and the 2009-2018 gap stability phase;second,the gap of Guangdong’s agricultural regional economic development is mainly derived from the gap between per capita agricultural production value;third,the convergence of Guangdong’s agricultural regional economic development gap basically corresponds to the staged characteristics of the agricultural economic development gap.During 1993-1998 and 2009-2018,the agricultural economic development gap all showed a certain ζ-convergence.(2)Explore the root causes of regional agricultural technological progress,and use the Solow residual method to measure the contribution of regional agricultural technological progress.The empirical results show that,first,the regional agricultural economic development level,the introduction of external agricultural technology,regional agricultural factor endowments,regional agricultural human capital levels,market perfection,and institutional policies are important factors that prioritize the formation of regional agricultural technological progress in Guangdong;second,the cancellation of agriculture taxation has a significant promotion effect on Guangdong’s agricultural technological progress.Third,there are obvious regional differences in Guangdong’s agricultural technological progress.The higher degree of openness and marketization in the Pearl River Delta and eastern Guangdong are conducive to agricultural technological progress.Western and eastern Guangdong Regions mainly rely on the advantages of labor factors to promote agricultural technological progress.(3)Use the intermediary effect model to explore the impact mechanism of agricultural technological progress on agricultural regional economic development gap from the perspective of agricultural industrial structure.The empirical results show that,first,there are obvious regional differences in the agricultural industrial structure of Guangdong.The agricultural industry structure of the Pearl River Delta and eastern Guangdong is highly optimized,and the level of agricultural industrial structure in northern Guangdong is low;second,Guangdong’s agricultural technological progress is more reflected in the planting industry,the technological progress of animal husbandry and fishery is relatively insignificant;third,Guangdong’s agricultural technological progress has alleviated the gap in agricultural regional economic development to a certain extent by inhibiting the adjustment of agricultural industrial structure.This intermediary effect of agricultural industrial structure accounts for about 8.30% of the total effect.(4)Use the intermediary effect model to explore the impact mechanism of agricultural technological progress on agricultural regional economic development gap from the perspective of factor flow.The empirical results show that,first,the flow of agricultural labor factors is the main intermediary for the effect of agricultural technological progress on the economic development gap of agricultural regions;second,the transfer rate of agricultural labor in the Pearl River Delta and eastern Guangdong is relatively high,but it is subject to backward urbanization.The agricultural labor transfer rate in North and West Guangdong is the lowest;third,Guangdong’s agricultural technological progress can reduce the gap in agricultural regional economic development by promoting the flow of agricultural labor factors.This intermediary effect of the agricultural industrial structure accounts for about 17.97% of the total effect.(5)Based on the co-integration method,explore the long-term relationship between agricultural technological progress and agricultural regional economic development gap.The empirical results show that,first,there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between Guangdong’s agricultural technological progress and the agricultural regional economic development gap;second,within a certain lag period,Guangdong’s agricultural technological progress and the agricultural regional economic development gap are Granger causality;third,there is a short-term correction mechanism for the effect of Guangdong’s agricultural technological progress on the agricultural regional economic development gap.A 1% change in Guangdong’s agricultural technological progress will cause a-2.08%change in the agricultural regional economic development gap.