Research On China’s Coal Supply Optimization Model (CCSM) Based On MESSAGEix

Coal accounts for about 70% of the primary energy supply in China.China’s energy resources are characterized by rich coal and poor oil and natural gas.Therefore,coal will continue to provide important energy guarantee for the safe and stable operation of China’s energy system for the coming decades.Nowadays,global climate change has attached more and more attention with the progress of economy and society.Clean and low-carbon development has become the main direction of energy system.Under this background,the development of coal industry is facing great challenges.Coal industry is seeking for new development patterns.Technologies,such as new chemical technologies and energy saving and emission reduction technologies,have brought new development opportunities for coal industry.A number of industrial policies are also constantly promoting the safe and green exploitation and clean and efficient utilization of coal.Therefore,the future of China’s coal industry is still uncertain under the comprehensive influence of multiple factors.It is conductive to the healthy and sustainable development of the coal industry through scientific analysis for the future of coal industry,which is also of great significance for ensuring the safe supply of energy.In this context,this study first analyzs the development status of coal industry in a multi-dimensional way.According to the coal flow in China’s energy system,the framework and China’s coal supply optimization model(CCSM)is built using the energy system modeling method.We also analyzed the uncertainties in the model.Then,based on the real data,the model is optimized to analyze the future development trend and industrial layout of coal industry and detailed coal flow.Finally,under the background of sustainable development,the key variables of regional relevant incentive policies are discussed.The main research contents and achievements of this study as shown below.(1)Firstly,this thesis analyzes China’s coal resources and coal supply and demand from different perspectives such as region,coal type and industrial structure,which provides the basis for the construction of multi-regional and multi-type coal model.Then,according to the coal flow in the energy system,this study analyzes the coal supply process and the key energy saving and emission reduction technologies in China,which provides a realistic basis for the construction of coal supply model.(2)According to the present status of China’s coal industry and technology development trend,the research framework of China’s multi-regional and multi-type coal supply model is determined.In the model,raw coal is divided into anthracite,coking bituminous coal,general bituminous coal and lignite according to the commonly used classification standards in China.The process of coal supply includes the whole process from coal mining to transformation coal into energy carriers which could be directly used by end users.Therefore,four processes are included in the model,including coal mining,coal washing,coal transformation and transportation.At the same time,the low-carbon development trend of energy system is considered in this model.Therefore,the power generation and heating from natural gas and various non-fossil energy are contained in the model to reflect the substitution of clean energy for coal.The optimization object of this model is to minimize the total system cost.The constraints of the model are built according to the constraints of industrial development,relevant policies and technology development.Thus,the theoretical coal supply optimization model is built.Then,the uncertainties in this model are analyzed.Based on this analysis,the dynamic optimization model under uncertain conditions is constructed.(3)In the implementation of the model,China is divided into seven regions.Then,coal supply data is collected and compiled to construct the model database.The structure of the database includes resources data,technical data and demand data.In the context of low-carbon development,four scenarios are constructed considering the policies of nonfossil energy development and carbon price strategies.Then,based on the MESSAGEix model framework developed by IIASA,China’s coal supply from 2015 to 2050 is optimized using Python language and GAMS software.The optimization results projected raw coal production,coal exploitation layout,coal flow and coal-related GHG emissions.The results show that,under the BAU scenario,China’s national raw coal production will reach its peak in 2030,while under the other three scenarios,China’s national raw coal production has already peaked.From the perspective of industrial layout,the regional concentration of coal industry will be further improved in the future.By 2050,the sum of raw coal exploited in XJ region and JSMN region will account for about 90%of the total national coal production.Non-fossil energy development and carbon price strategies have a positive effect on coal production control and coal-related greenhouse gas emission reduction.Among them,carbon price strategies can promote the application of carbon capture and storage technology,which result in a substantial reduction in coalrelated greenhouse gas emissions.(4)Based on the development trends of coal industry in different regions,this thesis analyzes the main conflicts of interest among the central government,local government and coal enterprises.To promote the sustainable development of China’s coal industry,incentive policy to promote the use of green mining technology and the incentive policy for capacity control are put forward based on the principal-agent theory.Then,the key parameters in the specific policy design are analyzed to provide a scientific basis for the formulation of coal industrial policies.The results of this study provide a theoretical basis and implementation tools for the systematic analysis of China’s coal industry.Based on the data from reality,the optimization of China’s coal supply system provides theoretical support for the layout optimization and the low-carbon development of coal industry.Moreover,this thesis discusses the design of coal industry policy according to regional coal industry development trends,which has great reference significance for policymakers to make scientific decisions,and provides guarantee for the realization of sustainable development of coal industry.