| With the increasing risk of uncertainty in world development,the resilience theory that seeks to stabilize and renew evolution in response to changes has become a kind of emerging paradigm and analytical framework for sustainable development.Due to the inherent vulnerability and sensitivity of the tourism industry,the tourism system in destination exhibits more severe fluctuations,more difficult recovery and more hidden risks than other industries under shock disturbances.This weakness in tourism could become a destabilizing factor for the overall economy.Especially for the cities or regions with tourism as the leading industry,the research on the resilience of the tourism system in destination has urgent practical needs and important theoretical significance.Tourism resilience has evident heterogeneity and risks compared to other industries.When encountering shocks,the extreme decline fluctuations of the tourism economy needs to be controlled.Resilience in the tourism system of destination has the characteristics of a large stability domain,and the research value of rapid recovery is similar to the "Singapore Paradox".So far,the influencing factors and influencing mechanisms of tourism resilience have not been verified adequately,and the research on the regional destination in this field is still blank.The research on the influencing factors and influencing mechanisms of tourism resilience is an emerging research content in the tourism field,which can provide constructive practical implications and policy suggestions for the stable development of national and regional tourism under the current risk circumstances.This paper uses the panel data of 212 tourist cities or regions in China from 2002 to 2019.It adopts empirical research methods such as the ASIM method,2SLS model,static and dynamic panel data model,moderating effect model and threshold effect model to construct an analytical framework for the resilience of the tourism system in destination(RTE).The main research contents and conclusions of this study are as follows.The first part is the basic theoretical framework of the RTE,which analyzes the connotation,composition,type,characteristics and evolution of resilience in the tourism system of destination.The long-term RTE,in general,embodies three co-evolving dimensions,namely,robustness,rebound and renewal.The characteristics of RTE are manifested in five aspects: significant sensitivity,large stability domain,strong rebound,multi-restriction,and high renewal ability.The resilience of the tourism system in destination can be divided into different types according to geographic scale,shock type,endogenous and exogenous,intensity and fast variable and slow variable.The evolution of RTE is the adaptive evolution of tourism based on the adaptive cycle and panarchy.The development of RTE consists of four stages: exploitation,conservation,release,and reorganization.The second part is the calculation and comparison of RTE.This part proposes the three key variables method to measure the resilience level of the tourism system of destination in China and regions at the city-level,and further conducts cross-industry and cross-regional comparisons.The difference between predicted output without shock and actual output is used to measure the robustness and rebound of RTE.The change rate of tourism total factor productivity before and after the shock is used to measure the renewal of RTE.Through the comparative analysis between RTE and the resilience of six industries,it is concluded that the industry heterogeneity of RTE is weak in robustness,moderate in rebound and vigorous in renewal.The results of the crossregional comparative analysis show that RTE in city-level regions of China is higher in crisis-type shocks than in cyclical-type shocks.RTE in the eastern cities is moderate and stable and is relatively unstable in the western cities.The third part is the interpretation Structure analysis of RTE influencing factors.Based on literature research and expert survey,14 influencing factors of RTE are identified and the binary relationships are determined in this part.Then,the AISM model is used to construct a hierarchical influencing factor interpretation structure model of RTE.The results show that the fundamental influencing factors for RTE are tourism expansion,tourism specialization and tourism resources.Education,investment,and government management are the intermediate-level transmission influencing factors.The direct influencing factors of RTE are economic level,tourism openness,employment,infrastructure,and financial support.In addition,culture,innovation and ecology are elements of the activity in the system.The fourth part is the empirical analysis of RTE influencing factors and driving mechanisms.2SLS,fixed-effects model and dynamic panel System-GMM model are used to estimate multiple linear regression,ridge regression and stepwise regression of RTE influencing factors.The results reveal that tourism expansion,education and public fiscal spending have the most substantial positive impact on RTE.Moreover,investment and financial loans have statistically significant effects on TRE,and the factors that harm RTE are tourism specialization,tourism openness,foreign direct investment and public fiscal revenue.Furthermore,this paper uses the mediation effect model,the moderation effect model and the static and dynamic threshold effect models to test the influencing mechanism of RTE.The results confirmed the mediating effect of investment,education and government management of the impacts of tourism expansion on RTE and the moderating effects of culture,innovation and ecology,as well as the threshold effect of tourism specialization of tourism development on RTE is verified.The fifth part presents RTE’s improving pathways and suggestions for policymakers.This study proposes three paths for RTE to improve governance:structural,administrative,and enhanced.The structural path includes industrial structure strategy,domestic and foreign structure strategy,and redundant structure strategy.The administrative path refers to the stabilized,energized,and normalized approaches.The enhanced path specifically includes cultural enhancement,innovated enhancement,ecological enhancement,and capital enhancement.Additionally,prefecture-level city Lijiang is selected as a case to evaluate the RTE,diagnose problems about RTE of this tourist region and propound corresponding suggestions.The innovation of this paper mainly includes three aspects.First,in terms of theoretical research,one of the contributions of this paper is to propose a theoretical and analytical framework of RTE.This study is the first to analyze the heterogeneity characteristics of RTE different from other industries,innovatively construct the "fragile type" RTE theory and typical governance of industrial resilience.Secondly,the innovation in the empirical method of this study is the use of three-dimensional measurement of RTE and the adoption of multi-economic quantitative methods to verify the influencing factors and mechanism of RTE.Based on the two-dimensional indicators in the previous literature,the RTE core variable measurement method of the three-dimensional indicators was proposed for the first time,which overcomes the problem of causal confusion caused by the use of the evaluation index system method in the previous literature.At the same time,the introduction of decisive slow variables and the use of panel data make the explanation strength of estimation stronger.The empirical method adopts various econometric approaches such as 2SLS,static panel data model and dynamic panel data System-GMM model,etc.,conducive to drawing more robust and reliable conclusions.In addition,the moderating effect model and the threshold effect model are employed for the first time in the related literature.Finally,it is the innovation of empirical conclusions,that is,this paper verifies the influencing factors and mechanisms of RTE and builds its empirical model.This study proposes and demonstrates the mediating effect,moderating interaction effect and threshold effect of tourism development on RTE,and the empirical conclusion fills the relevant research gaps. |
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