| Food security is a solid foundation for national security.Over the past 70 years since the founding of the People’s Republic of China,China has made a historic leap from insufficient food and clothing to a moderately prosperous society in all respects.Although the global spread of COVID-19 at the beginning of 2020 sounded the alarm for food security,China still achieved sufficient price stability in the grain market and guaranteed food security in the "big test",and won the initiative to win the fight against the epidemic prevention and control.At the present stage,China’s grain production capacity is stable,the supply is sufficient,the market is stable,and the overall situation is improving.However,when it comes to food,we should not forget history and be blindly optimistic.We should not forget what it was like to go hungry yesterday because we have enough food and clothing today.If you can’t increase the production of grain year after year,you will have a "grain clearance".The foundation of China’s food security is still unstable,the long-term trend of supply and demand is "tight balance",the "gas" of grain production can be increased but not reduced,we must prevent a sharp decline in output.Therefore,it is still a valuable and important proposition to explore how to steadily and sustainably promote grain production and build a higher quality,more efficient and more sustainable national food security system.There is no doubt that agricultural infrastructure,as the lifeblood support to ensure the increase of grain production,is the "advance capital" to achieve high-quality agricultural development,and is also the necessary material premise to guarantee national food security and realize the "grain storage on the ground" and "grain storage on technology".Under the background of the in-depth promotion of the rural revitalization strategy during the 14 th Five-Year Plan period and the new normal of grain production,it is crucial to promote the upgrading of agricultural infrastructure in order to further promote the sustainable,safe and efficient increase of grain production in China.To sum up,it is the premise and foundation to improve the pertinence and scientific nature of agricultural infrastructure investment in the field of food production and to continue the increase of grain yield and efficiency in China to clarify the internal influence mechanism of agricultural infrastructure on grain production and to explore and test the different action paths of different agricultural infrastructure to promote grain production.This study comprehensively reviewed the practical background and references of agricultural infrastructure and grain yield increase,combined with the theory of agricultural economic growth,the theory of public goods,the theory of externality and the theory of social advance capital,and centering on the core research issue of "the influence mechanism of agricultural infrastructure on grain yield increase".The mechanism and internal effects of different types of agricultural infrastructure on grain yield increase were explored from the perspectives of theoretical analysis and empirical test.Specifically,this paper takes the impact mechanism of agricultural infrastructure on grain yield increase as the logical main line,conducts empirical analysis from the three dimensions of its effect mechanism on grain yield increase(scale expansion,efficiency improvement and yield reduction and reduction),and draws the following conclusions:1.This study establishes a comprehensive analysis framework for the mechanism of the impact of agricultural infrastructure on grain yield increase.(1)In terms of theoretical analysis,the internal mechanism of agricultural infrastructure promoting grain yield increase was summarized into two main paths: "expansion of sown area" and "increase of yield per unit area".Among them,agricultural infrastructure promotes the expansion of the sown area of grain crops through the scale expansion effect,and promotes the improvement of the per unit area yield of grain crops through the efficiency improvement effect and the disaster reduction and yield increase effect.Different types of agricultural infrastructure have different functions and degrees in promoting grain yield increase.Among them,the effect mechanism of farmland water conservancy infrastructure on grain yield increase is reflected in four dimensions: promoting the construction of high-standard farmland,increasing effective irrigation area,improving grain production efficiency and preventing natural risks.The mechanism of increasing grain yield of rural transportation infrastructure is reflected in three dimensions: affecting farmland wastage,boosting mechanization to replace labor force and improving grain production efficiency.The effect mechanism of agricultural power infrastructure on grain yield increase is reflected in two dimensions: increasing cultivated land area and preventing natural risks.(2)From the empirical results,based on the inter-provincial panel data from 2000 to 2018,this paper uses the panel model to verify that irrigation and water conservancy infrastructure and rural transportation infrastructure at the national level can significantly promote grain production,but agricultural power facilities do not show a significant effect on grain production.Compared with the regional level,the irrigation and water conservancy infrastructure in the eastern,central and western regions had a significant promoting effect on grain yield increase,and the order of yield increase effect was "> in the eastern region,> in the central region and > in the western region".The rural transportation infrastructure in central China could significantly promote the grain yield increase,but the rural transportation infrastructure in eastern and western China had no significant effect on the grain yield increase.The agricultural power infrastructure in the eastern and central regions had a significant promoting effect on the grain yield increase,while the agricultural power infrastructure in the western regions had no significant effect on the grain yield increase.2.This study follows the inner mechanism of the agricultural infrastructure of grain production logic,will further the role of agricultural infrastructure to promote grain production chain is subdivided into: "scale effect","efficiency" and "relief from effect",and carries on the quantitative analysis,to further inspection and supporting agriculture infrastructure influence mechanism of grain production.(1)this research attempts to agricultural infrastructure for food crops sown area is defined as the influence of agricultural infrastructure to promote grain production of the "scale effect",based on the provincial panel data from 2000 to 2018,through the panel model analysis of irrigation and water conservancy infrastructure,rural infrastructure facilities and agricultural power infrastructure of the influence of the area sown to grain in China.The results show that: at the national level,irrigation and water conservancy facilities and agricultural power facilities have a significant effect on the grain sown area,while the rural road facilities have no significant effect on the grain sown area;At the regional level,no matter in the main grain-producing areas or non-main grain-producing areas,the impact of irrigation and water conservancy infrastructure on the sown area of grain is significantly positive.The rural transportation infrastructure has a significant negative effect on the sown area of grain crops in the main producing areas,and the elastic coefficient is-0.0778,which has no significant effect on the sown area of grain crops in the non-main producing areas.The agricultural power infrastructure has a significant positive effect on the sown area of grain crops in the main producing areas,and the elasticity coefficient is 0.0387.The effect on grain sown area in non-main producing areas was not significant.(2)this study attempts to agricultural infrastructure’s influence on the total factor productivity of grain is defined as the agricultural infrastructure to promote grain production of "efficiency effect",based on the provincial panel data from 2000-2018,through the panel model analysis of irrigation and water conservancy infrastructure,rural infrastructure facilities and agricultural power infrastructure effects on total factor productivity of grain.Firstly,the DEA-Malmquist index method is used to calculate the total factor productivity of grain in 30 provinces of China from 2000 to 2018.Secondly,the systematic generalized moment estimation(SYS-GMM)was used to verify the impact of three rural infrastructures(namely water conservancy,transportation and power infrastructure)on the total factor productivity of grain.The results showed that the TFP of grain in 22 provinces except Beijing,Guangdong,Guizhou,Inner Mongolia,Shanghai,Sichuan,Tibet and Yunnan increased positively from 2000 to 2009,and the TFP of grain in China was about 1.005,with an average annual growth rate of 0.5%.From 2009 to 2018,the total factor productivity of grain in 30 provinces maintained positive growth,and the national grain TFP was about1.016,with an average annual growth rate of 1.6 percent.The total factor productivity of China’s 30 provinces from 2000 to 2019 is about 1.011,with an average annual growth rate of 1.1%.The irrigation and water conservancy infrastructure and agricultural power infrastructure have a significant positive impact on the total factor productivity of grain,and the elastic coefficients are 0.340 and 0.241,respectively.Rural transportation infrastructure has no significant influence on the total factor productivity of grain in the current period,while its lag term has a significant positive influence on the total factor productivity of grain,and its elasticity coefficient is 0.0388.(3)This study attempts to define the impact of agricultural infrastructure on the area affected by drought and flood of food crops as the "disaster reduction and yield increase effect" of agricultural infrastructure promoting grain increase.Based on the inter-provincial panel data from 2000 to 2018,the spatial Dolbin model(SDM)was selected to investigate the direct and spillover effects of irrigation and water conservancy infrastructure,reservoirs and agricultural power drainage and irrigation facilities on the flood-affected area of grain.The results show that: in terms of direct effects,irrigation and water conservancy infrastructure can significantly reduce the drought and flood affected area of grain crops in the region;The reservoir has increased the drought-hit area of the region’s food crops.The reduction effect of flood disaster is not significant;Electric power drainage and irrigation facilities have no significant effect on the drought affected area of grain crops in the region,but they can significantly reduce the flood affected area of grain crops.In terms of spillover effect,the local effect of most explanatory variables on flood affected area is stronger than the inter-regional spillover effect.By comparing the spillover effect of drought affected area and flood affected area,it is found that the spillover effect of explanatory variables on drought affected area is stronger than that of flood affected area.There was spatial spillover effect of agricultural infrastructure on the area affected by drought and flood of surrounding grain crops.Among them,the spillover effect of irrigation and water conservancy facilities on the affected area of drought and flood in surrounding areas is significantly negative.This indicates that the irrigation and water conservancy facilities in this region can effectively reduce the occurrence of drought and flood disasters in this region and at the same time reduce the affected area of drought and flood disasters by adjusting the abundance and shortage of water for grain production in the surrounding areas.The spillover effect of the reservoir on the area affected by drought is significantly negative,while the spillover effect on the area affected by flood is significantly positive.There was no significant spillover effect of electric drainage and irrigation facilities on the affected area of drought and flood in surrounding areas.Through the above conclusions,this research from the construction of agricultural infrastructure diversified input mechanism,strengthen the security of grain production of farmland water conservancy foundation,steady progress was made in high quality and highly efficient development of "four good rural road",build the field of intelligent efficient power network operation management mechanism and improve the agricultural infrastructure by five aspects put forward agricultural infrastructure related targeted policy Suggestions to promote the grain production. |
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