Research On The Coupling Coordination Of Economy-Society-Resource-Environment System In Central Cities Of China

Cities are essential for regional,national,and global development strategies.Research on the urban system composed of various parts and complex interactions is critical for effective policies.The coordination state of an urban system provides a standard for whether it tends to be high order,among which coordinating all forms,such as economy,society,resources,and environment,has become the key.In other words,it is necessary to comprehensively study urban subsystems and realize development goals by promoting their positive interactions.In addition,the coordinated system is also the internal requirement of the current High-Quality Development Strategy in China,which aims to extend quality to all aspects and emphasizes the overall development,reflecting the collaborative relationships between the economy,society,resources,and the environment.Central cities are at the top of China’s urban system and are expected to play a critical role during development.However,those cities face a variety of complex challenges and development dilemmas.Therefore,taking such cities as examples and promoting high-quality development by improving the coordination of complex urban subsystems has important practical significance for national construction in the current stage.Based on previous studies,this thesis considers the integrity and comprehensiveness of system coordination to take the urban economy-society-resource-environment system as the research object and considers the relevance of the system development from inside to outside.Therefore,this thesis establishes a three-layer theoretical framework and makes empirical studies:(1)The first-layer study,coupling coordination evaluation of urban systems,is the basis for in-depth analysis of the complex urban system.The entropy method is first applied to obtain the performance variables of four subsystems.Then the panel vector autoregression model is constructed,and the impulse response function and variance decomposition are used to analyze the mutual impacts between subsystems to judge whether there is development conflict or promotion.Finally,the coupling coordination degree model is built to evaluate the degree of interactions and the degree of coordinated development from 1995 to 2018.(2)The second-layer study,the analysis of the interacting relationships between internal elements,deeply analyzes the causes of development conflicts based on the first-layer results.The variables for analyzing the interactions are determined,and the theoretical model is constructed.The most used unit root test models are used to confirm the stability of variables.Johansen Panel Cointegration test is used to reveal the long-term relationship.The long-term elastic coefficient is determined using the Fully Modified Least Square estimation technique.Granger causality test of the Vector Error Correction model is used to determine the longterm and short-term causality between variables.(3)The third-layer study,system dynamic evolution and coordination optimization,uses the system dynamics model to solve urban problems and clarify the direction for progress.The urban system is conceptualized as a causal cycle diagram based on the previous layers.The dynamic model of the urban system is established through inventory and flow charts.The effectiveness of the urban system is verified from the aspects of boundary,dimension,parameters,and behavior.Five scenarios,the current,economic,social,resource,and environmental scenarios,are set through parameter adjustment to simulate and predict the coordination level and conduct optimization analysis.Based on the above three-layer research,this thesis obtains the following main conclusions:(1)The coordination level between the four subsystems in central cities of China is not high,mainly caused by development weaknesses and conflicts.Specifically,in terms of development differences,economic and social performance have maintained growth,resource performance has been declining,and the environmental subsystem lacks stable growth.Regarding development conflicts,those between economic and resource subsystems and those between resource and environmental subsystems are significant,while social and environmental subsystems promote each other.To break through the conflicts and dilemmas,the government should ensure the development of land resources,optimize the land structure,and improve the support security of cultivated land and food resources.The government also needs to optimize the economic structure,improve resource utilization,and control pollution emissions.(2)The internal elements have complex interacting relationships,resulting in not high coordination level of urban systems in central cities.These complex interactions mainly include: The role of people’s livelihood and energy consumption in promoting economic growth;Inhibitory effect of pollution emission on economic growth;The role of food security in promoting population development;Inhibitory effect of pollution emission on population development;Positive impact of economic growth on energy consumption;The role of secondary industry in promoting energy consumption;Inhibitory effect of technological progress on energy consumption;Influence of industrial structure on the cultivated land area;Positive impact of energy consumption on pollution emissions;The inhibitory effect of environmental protection on pollution emissions.(3)The coordinated development in central cities should not only have a clear direction but also consider local differences.On the one hand,the coordinated development of urban systems requires the government to take the social subsystem as the goal orientation,take the resource subsystem as the development support and avoid the long-term unsustainability caused by economic and environmental scenarios.On the other hand,we should also consider the differences in central cities and formulate localized countermeasures.For example,Beijing should formulate the “people’s livelihood improvement-resource guarantee” strategy,Guangzhou should formulate the development strategy of “economic guarantee-resource and environment improvement”,and Zhengzhou should formulate the “resource guarantee-economic and social improvement” strategy.(4)It is essential to comprehensively consider the economic,social,resource,and environmental subsystems and integrate the research on the evaluation of the coupling coordination,the interacting relationships of internal elements,and the dynamic evolution of the system.It is of great significance to have an insight into the complex urban system and provide a more systematic reference for effective policymaking.This paper mainly includes the following three innovations:(1)This paper constructs a three-tier theoretical model for the coupling coordination analysis of the urban economy-society-resource-environment system,considering the importance of cities and the complex urban system.Focusing on promoting the coordination of the urban system can provide a reference for realizing China’s Highquality Development Strategy in central cities and other cities.(2)This paper considers the integrity and comprehensiveness of system coordination,expands the previous research on urban systems that generally pays attention to two or three subsystems,and comprehensively considers the economic,social,resource,and environmental subsystems.Comprehensively considering the four subsystems promotes a more systematic consideration of urban development and provides new ideas and inspiration for future policymaking.Unlike the previous focus on economy and environment,the conclusions of this paper show that promoting the optimal performance of the social subsystem and guaranteeing the capacity of the resources subsystem is the key to realizing the coordination development of the complex urban system of the central cities in the future.And the economic and environmental orientation is unsustainable in the long run.(3)This paper integrates the previous independent research on the coupling coordination evaluation of the urban system,the interactions of internal elements,and the dynamic evolution of the system.It considers the interconnection and complementarity of these three tiers.It analyzes the contradiction and conflicts of the urban system,the interactions of internal elements to find out the source of the contradiction,and the overall dynamic evolution and optimization of the urban system.It can provide more specific,sufficient,targeted,and well-founded references for the policymaking of urban development.