| Based on the national conditions of China with more people and less land,promoting green agricultural development is not only related to the well-being of the people’s livelihood,but also related to the national food security and the sustained growth of farmers’ income.However,the natural weakness of agricultural production needs the support and protection of national policies.Therefore,China continues to pay attention to the reform of agricultural policies and continuously adjust agricultural subsidy policies according to the needs of agricultural development.In order to promote the reform of agricultural subsidy system guided by green ecology,China comprehensively launched the reform of agricultural "three subsidies" in 2016,combining direct grain subsidy,crop variety subsidy and comprehensive agricultural subsidy means into "agricultural support payments".Among them,part of the funds are used for cultivated land productivity protection(called cultivated land productivity protection subsidy),and the remaining funds are used to build agricultural credit system and support grain moderate scale operation(called moderate scale operation subsidy).Since 2016,Hebei Province has implemented the agricultural support payments policy for five years,but the agricultural support payments policy is a complex agricultural support policy,and its policy effects are affected by a variety of factors,especially in the process of policy implementation,various problems will restrict its policy effect.It will affect the effect of agricultural support payments policy in Hebei Province,and deviate from the established policy objectives to a certain extent.This paper chooses the policy of "agricultural support payments " as the research object,and takes the policy objective as the criterion to analyze the policy effect of agricultural support payments in Hebei Province.In the specific analysis,this paper distinguishes and analyzes the two policies of cultivated land productivity protection subsidy and moderate scale operation subsidy,then evaluates the overall effect of the agricultural support and protection subsidy policy,and puts forward countermeasures and suggestions to improve agricultural support payments policy.It not only helps to improve the implementation effect of agricultural support payments policy in Hebei Province,but also provides theoretical basis and practical reference for improving agricultural support payments policy in Hebei Province and even the whole country.In view of this,its research has certain theoretical and practical significance.The research contents of this paper were as follows:(1)From a historical point of view.this paper combed the historical change and implementation background of agricultural support payments policy,introduced the implementation of agricultural support payments policy in Hebei Province,and constructed the policy effect analysis system;(2)Taking the policy objectives as the criterion,based on the survey data,this paper analyzed the effects of cultivated land fertility protection subsidy policy and moderate scale operation subsidy policy respectively.On the one hand,this paper analyzed the effect of the cultivated land fertility protection subsidy policy on green technology promotion and farmland productivity protection,and the effect of moderate scale operation subsidy policy on meeting the credit demand of scale farmers and promoting grain scale operation;On the other hand,this paper studied the response and satisfaction of farmers to the agricultural support payments policy.It included the recognition,care and support of ordinary farmers to the cultivated land fertility protection subsidy policy.and the recognition.care and support of scale farmers to the moderate scale operation subsidy policy;This paper analyzed the satisfaction of ordinary farmers to the cultivated land fertility protection subsidy policy,and the satisfaction of scale farmers to the moderate scale operation subsidy policy;(3)Taking the value orientation as the criterion,this paper analyzed the overall effect of the agricultural support payments policy.Based on the macro data,this paper used Entropy-TOPSIS and grey correlation analysis method to evaluate the comprehensive effect of the cultivated land fertility protection subsidy policy,the comprehensive effect of the moderate scale operation subsidy policy and the overall effect of the agricultural support payments policy,and respectively studied the correlation degree of the comprehensive effect of the cultivated land fertility protection subsidy policy,the comprehensive effect of the moderate scale operation subsidy policy,the overall effect of the agricultural support payments policy and each evaluation index;(4)From the aspects of encouraging agricultural green technology innovation,optimizing agricultural credit products,integrating subsidy funds,and accelerating the reform of land transfer system,this paper put forward countermeasures and suggestions for adjusting and optimizing the agricultural support payments policy.The results showed that:(1)The cultivated land productivity protection subsidy conservation was distributed reasonably in all regions and cities,and to some extent had the characteristics of "Generalized System of Preferences",and the agricultural support payments policy was mainly used to support the construction of agricultural credit guarantee system,with the characteristics of "preferential system";(2)The cultivated land productivity protection subsidy had a positive impact on the promotion of green technology,which was mainly affected by the subsidy standard,the initial value of population proportion and the degree of risk aversion of farmers,but the effect needed to be further improved;(2)The cultivated land fertility protection subsidy policy had a significant incentive effect on Farmers’ promotion of green technology,which was significantly affected by the initial value of population proportion and farmers’ degree of risk aversion;(3)The promotion of green technology had a positive impact on improving cultivated land fertility and grain yield per unit area;The cultivated land fertility protection subsidy policy had a positive impact on fertility protection,and the effect of the cultivated land fertility protection subsidy policy on promoting fertility protection had been strengthened by promoting green technology;(4)The establishment and development of the agricultural credit guarantee system had to some extent met the credit needs of large-scale farmers and alleviated the problem of farmers’ financial constraints.However,there were still many problems in the "Jinongdan" products,which needed to further adjust the product elements and improve the risk-sharing mechanism;(5)The moderate scale operation subsidy policy had a significant positive effect on promoting the moderate scale operation of grain under the condition of satisfying the credit demand of farmers.The moderate scale operation subsidy policy realized the goal of moderate scale operation of grain by influencing the external environment of the policy,government behavior,farmers’enthusiasm for production and the intermediate variables of farmers’ credit demand;(6)The overall effect level of agricultural support payments policy in Hebei Province was increasing year by year,and the effect level had a strong correlation with the content of soil organic matter,the area of planting production base,the amount of the cultivated land fertility protection subsidy,the contribution rate of agricultural science and technology progress,the agricultural industrialization operation rate and the total grain output.The comprehensive effect of the cultivated land fertility protection subsidy policy in Hebei Province was increasing year by year,and the effect level had a strong correlation with the amount of the cultivated land fertility protection subsidy and the content of cultivated soil organic matter;The comprehensive effect of the moderate scale operation subsidy policy in Hebei province fluctuated greatly,and the effect level had a strong correlation with the amount of the moderate scale operation subsidy,the area of planting production base and the content of agricultural soil organic matter;(7)The general farmers’ response to the cultivated land fertility protection subsidy policy was not very positive,and the satisfaction was not high;the response of the large-scale farmers to the moderate scale operation subsidy policy was very positive,but the satisfaction was low.The innovation points of this article were as follows:Based on the dual objectives of value objectives and policy objectives,the analysis framework of the effect of agricultural support payments policy was constructed,and the effect of agricultural support payments policy was analyzed from the perspective of direct effect and target effect;(2)The process of the impact of the Cultivated land capacity protection subsidy policy on the promotion of green technology was regarded as a dynamic evolution process.Based on the dynamic game theory,a tripartite dynamic evolution system of leading enterprises,farmers’cooperatives and farmers is constructed,and the influence of the change of the subsidy standard and other indicators on the dynamic equilibrium system was studied by using the numerical simulation method;(3)Introducing the development of agricultural credit guarantee system as an intermediate variable,it analyzed the case analysis of how the subsidy policy of moderate scale operation supporting the development of agricultural credit guarantee system,and the research on how the development of agricultural credit guarantee system meeting the credit guarantee demand of scale farmers,which enriched the research content of the effect of the subsidy policy of moderate scale operation. |