The Study On The New Flying Geese Pattern Of Industrial Transfer Among China And The Countries Of The Belt And Road Area

The Belt and Road Initiative is an important platform for promoting common development and achieving mutual benefit.It is also an important way to strengthen China’s voice in global economic governance and shape a new global economic order.Which are important ways to promote high-quality development of the Belt and Road through giving full play to China’s comprehensive comparative advantages,strengthening the Belt and Road production cooperation,and integrating and developing regional production networks.The traditional “flying geese pattern” have ever created the East Asian miracle.And most countries along the Belt and Road have obvious industrial ladder difference,which is important prerequisite for the subsequent development of flying geese pattern.However,the decline of “flying geese pattern” in East Asia shows that the traditional “flying geese pattern” cannot be copied in the Belt and Road industrial transfer.Under the new international specialization system,transnational industrial transfer has injected new impetus,expanded new space and presented new phenomena for regional economic development,which need new theories to explain.Existing researches have paid attention to the new phenomenon and the new pattern of industrial transfer,but have not analyzed the operating mechanism of the new mpattern,have not summarized the new characteristics of the new pattern,have not tested the new pattern,and have not analyzed the influencing factors of the formation of the new pattern.This paper not only puts forward the theory of “new flying geese pattern” of the Belt and Road industrial transfer,but also conducts in-depth research on the areas that have not been covered by the existing studies.Based on the new international specialization system,this paper puts forward,verifies and empirically analyzes the “new flying geese pattern”of industrial transfer among China and the Belt and Road countries.The main research contents are follows:(1)This paper puts forward the “new flying geese pattern” of industrial transfer,not only theoretically analyzes the operation mechanism and evolution process of the “new flying geese pattern”,and summarizes the basic characteristics of the“new flying geese pattern”,but also constructs the verification and analysis framework of the “new flying geese pattern”;(2)Based on the empirical evidence of the Belt and Road industrial development,the New Flying Geese characteristics are verified from two perspectives from the evolution of regional production network and the evolution of industrial comparative advantage;(3)This paper empirically analyzes the factors influencing the formation of New Flying Geese network structure from three aspects:network endogenous structure effect,network node country attribute effect and external network embeddedness effect;(4)On the basis of theoretical research,empirical verification and empirical analysis,this paper puts forward some suggestions to promote the industrial transfer of New Flying Geese and build high-quality regional production network of the Belt and Road.The selected research tools and analysis methods mainly include:(1)Social network analysis(SNA),and some analysis softwares such as Gephi and Ucinet,which are used to verifiy and analyze the New Flying Geese characteristics of regional industrial transfer from the perspective of production network evolution;(2)By using the relative trade advantage index(RTA)considering import penetration and reducing double calculation to measure the comparative advantage,and using Spearman rank correlation coefficient to analyze the correlation degree and long-term trend of the change of comparative advantage,this paper verifies and analyzes the New Flying Geese characteristics from the perspective of the evolution of comparative advantage;(3)Based on the relational data,the exponential random graph model(ERGM),which can reflect the local network structure and interdependence,is used to empirically analyze the factors influencing the formation of New Flying Geese network structure.Theoretical analysis and empirical verification of the “new flying geese pattern”found that: On the one hand,the “new flying geese pattern” of the Belt and Road industrial transfer accords with three basic connotations of “flying geese” relationship,which concludes industrial development echelon,efficiency,diversification and upgrading of industries,and one-way shift of the industrial comparative advantages based on vertical specialization between countries in different echelons;On the other hand,under the new international specialization system,the “new flying geese pattern” has new characteristics different from the traditional flying geese pattern,which are as follows:(1)The “new flying geese pattern” shows a complex network structure of “big geese group” nested with“small geese group” as well as “multi-level flying geese pattern”,and the “leading goose effect” does not originate from a single country alone;(2)Some emerging markets have achieved “leapfrog” development,while their comparative advantages in high-tech industries mainly come from low value-added links;(3)After the Belt and Road Initiative was put forward,there has been a significant increase in one-way shift of comparative advantages in the region,but the promoting effect of industrial restructuring and upgrading in countries along the Belt and Road have not been fully manifested.The results of empirical analysis on the formation of the New Flying Geese network structure in the Belt and Road are are as follows:(1)The reciprocity,agglomeration and transitivity of network endogenous structure play an important role in the formation of the New Flying Geese network structure,while the mediation is not conducive to the formation of New Flying Geese network structure;(2)The high income,high innovation index and medium population size have heterogeneous effects in the formation of the New Flying Geese network structure,but the middle and low income levels,middle innovation index,and low population size have an homophily effect on the formation of the New Flying Geese network structure;(3)The economic freedom,economic openness,business facilitation index and legal system have obvious Matthew effects on the formation of the New Flying Geese network structure;(4)Geospatial proximity network,free trade agreement network,common language network and common religion network play an important role in promoting the formation of the “new flying geese pattern” production network relations.The research contributions of this paper are mainly reflected in four aspects:(1)A new theoretical and research framework system is put forward.This paper not only puts forward the “new flying geese pattern” of international industrial transfer,but also theoretically analyzes the operation mechanism and evolution process of the new pattern for the first time,and summarizes the basic characteristics of the new pattern completely for the first time.Not only from the perspective of comparative advantage evolution,but also from the perspective of production network evolution for the first time,this paper constructs the verification system of the New Flying Geese characteristics.Not only verifies the existence of the New Flying Geese characteristics of industrial transfer in the belt and Road for the first time,but also analyzes the formation mechanism and influencing factors of the New Flying Geese network structure from the perspective of network relations for the first time;(2)New research tools and analytical methods are selected.Social network analysis(SNA)method,relative trade Advantage index(RTA)to measure comparative advantage,Spearman rank correlation coefficient analysis method,and exponential random graph model(ERGM)empirical method,most of these methods are used in the study of Flying Geese relationship for the first time;(3)New characteristic facts and research conclusions are found.Such as,the Belt and Road industrial transfer not only accords with the basic connotations of Flying Geese relationship,but also presents new characteristics such as “big flying geese” nested “small flying geese” structure,“multi-level flying geese ”pattern,transfering of “leading goose effect”,and leapfrog development.And the Belt and Road initiative is conducive to promoting the industrial transfer of New Flying Geese,but the promotion of industrial upgrading has not been fully manifested.And the formation of the New Flying Geese network structure of the Belt and Road is not only affected by attribute variables,but also by endogenous structural variables and external embedded networks.(4)New policy ideas are devised.From the new perspective of promoting the industrial transfer of New Flying Geese,this paper puts forward policy suggestions to build high-quality regional production networks of the Belt and Road,which will be conducive to promote industrial transformation and upgrading in countries along the Belt and Road,to promote high-quality development of regional economies,and to provide enlightenment and reference for the “leapfrog”development of developing countries.