| Food security is of Paramount importance to economic and social development because it is related to the prosperity and decline of a nation.Since the founding of the People’s Republic of China,the Party and the state have always attached great importance to food security,formulated and adjusted a series of development strategies and specific measures to focus on food security,thus steadily increasing China’s overall grain production capacity and effectively ensuring national food security.At present,China’s food security level is at its best in history,but it is also facing unprecedented pressure and challenges.Externally,we are in the midst of a century of major changes compounded by the global epidemic.The international situation is complex and volatile,with frequent shocks to global food production and trade,increasing risks of disruption of the international food supply chain,and the uncertainty of the global food market becoming a regular occurrence,which will greatly reduce the stability and reliability of international food sources in the medium to long term.Internally,on the supply side,domestic grain production is facing a number of constraints,such as tighter resource and environmental constraints,weak support for agricultural science and technology,and narrowing profit margins for grain growing,making it more difficult to increase grain production at high levels.On the demand side,as China’s total population tends to be high and stable,urbanization continues to advance and residents’ consumption level continues to rise,food consumption demand will maintain a rapid growth in the long term.More importantly,due to the continuous differences in development speed,industrial structure and inherent resource endowment between the northern and southern regions,the pattern of grain supply and demand in China has shifted from the long-standing "grain transfer from the South to the North" to "grain transfer from the north to the south".The gap between grain supply and demand in densely populated and economically developed regions in the south has further widened,and the dependence on inter-provincial dispatch has increased.The grain-growing areas in northern China are also faced with increasingly serious problems such as soil and water resource shortage,ecological environment deterioration and declining grain yield.It is more and more difficult to increase grain production continuously.The imbalance of grain supply and demand structure and the mismatch of resource elements in the north and the south have become an important practical obstacle to ensure the sustainable protection of Chinese grain security.Therefore,it has the very important practical significance to analyze and discuss how to effectively safeguard our food security in the new era based on the perspective of the North-South difference.Food quantity security is the prerequisite and foundation for achieving security in other dimensions,such as quality and nutrition.In essence,grain quantity security is a contradiction between grain supply and demand.The main aspect of the contradiction is on the supply side,which is the problem that the domestic grain production system can not well meet the increasing demand for grain consumption under the existing conditions.Therefore,to ensure food security is focused on improving food production capacity.Only by using the existing conditions to live and make good use of stock resources can we effectively guarantee food security in China.Based on this understanding,based on General Secretary Xi Jinping’s new national food security concept,Marxist productivity theory,neoclassical growth theory,and structuralist non-equilibrium economic development theory,this paper starts from the supply side and focuses on the grain production link to analyze my country’s current situation.Regarding food security issues,this paper uses the total factor productivity growth decomposition model and the resource mismatch model to explore the improvement space of my country’s grain production efficiency under the constraints of existing resource conditions.This paper is mainly divided into six parts:the first part is the introduction,literature review and theoretical basis,including chapters 1 and 2.This part first outlines the research background,research significance,research methods,technical route,possible innovations and deficiencies of this paper;then it summarizes related researches on food security,technological progress,resource allocation,etc.to find the entry point of this paper;Finally,the theoretical basis used in this paper is outlined,and the core concepts of food security,resource reallocation,and technological progress are defined.The second part is the judgment and analysis of my country’s food security,including chapters 3 and 4.Food security is essentially a question of balance between food supply and demand.It is the starting point of studying food security to analyze the situation of food supply and demand and security situation comprehensively and accurately.First of all,from the perspective of total volume,structure and region,we insist on the combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis.According to the statistical data of grain production and marketing and relevant historical data of grain work since the founding of new China,the paper analyzes the evolution trend and structural characteristics of the situation of grain supply and demand in detail.Secondly,based on the quantity security of the three main grains,referring to the existing research at home and abroad,using comprehensive evaluation method to establish the food security alarm indicator system and the food security warning indicator system,to make a comprehensive assessment of the level of our food security.Finally,on the basis of the above analysis,from the perspectives of internal challenges and external risks,the paper makes a comprehensive judgment on the situation of food security in the new era,and points out that the key to ensure food security in the new era is to improve grain total factor productivity.The third part is the source analysis of my country’s grain total factor productivity growth,including Chapter 5.This chapter mainly explores the improvement of grain total factor productivity under the current resource constraints.Firstly,the contribution of grain total factor productivity to grain increase from 1999 to 2020 was estimated using the growth equation(residual value method).Secondly,the structuralist multi-sector growth model with the addition of land factors was used to decompose the effect of agricultural technology progress and resource reallocation effect from the total factor productivity growth of grain,and the contribution of agricultural technology progress and resource reallocation between the north and south regions to the increase of grain production and total factor productivity growth was calculated respectively.The fourth part is the analysis of technological progress in my country’s grain production,including the sixth chapter.This chapter mainly explores the difference of the promoting effect of different kinds of technological progress on grain increase.First of all,based on the calculation of the effect of technological progress mentioned above,the supporting effect of five major agricultural technologies on grain increase was analyzed according to technology categories.Secondly,the differences of different types of technological progress in Chinese grain production were investigated through E-S model,and the current technical bottlenecks were discussed and the internal reasons were analyzed.The fifth part is the analysis of resource mismatch in my country’s grain production,including Chapter 7.This chapter mainly discusses the situation of resource misallocation of grain production between south and north regions,analyzes the loss of productivity caused by resource misallocation and explores the main factors affecting the efficiency of resource allocation.Firstly,the analysis framework of resource mismatch and productivity loss(resource mismatch model)is introduced.Secondly,this paper empirically analyzes the relative distortion coefficient of grain production between north and south regions,and estimates the grain output gap caused by the misallocation of factor resources.Finally,a panel data model is constructed to investigate the quantitative relationship between the comparative yield of grain farming,the development degree of rural financial market,government intervention and operation scale and the misallocation degree of capital,labor and land in grain production,so as to determine the scientific policy direction for further correcting the resource misallocation.The sixth part is the practical thinking,conclusion and prospect,including chapter 8 and 9.Firstly,according to the previous analysis,the author puts forward some practical ideas to ensure our food security in two aspects: promoting the progress of grain production technology and optimizing the allocation of grain production resources.Secondly,the paper systematically combs and summarizes the content of the full text,and extracts four main conclusions.Finally,the future research is prospected.This paper mainly draws four conclusions: First,my country’s food security situation has generally improved in recent years,but it also faces a series of intertwined internal and external risks,and the "tight balance" of food supply and demand may become the norm in the future.Second,in the context of tightening resource and environmental constraints,in order to continue to achieve high and stable grain production and increase in grain production to ensure food security,it is necessary to change the driving force of grain production increase,and change the driving factor of grain production increase from factor input to efficiency improvement,that is,through Improve overall productivity to achieve high and stable grain production.Third,technological progress is the main driving force for the growth of grain total factor productivity and grain production in my country,but this driving force has been attenuated at present,because the biochemical and mechanical technological progress supporting grain production in the past five years During the stagnation period,efforts should be made to break through the existing bottlenecks in agricultural science and technology by increasing the intensity of agricultural science and technology investment,strengthening key core technology research,and improving the efficiency of agricultural science and technology supply and demand matching.Fourth,the overall effect of resource reallocation on the growth of grain total factor productivity and grain production is weak.The reason is that there is a misallocation of grain production resources between the North and South regions.If the resource allocation between the North and South regions can be adjusted to the best state,my country’s grain production will increase by more than 5.8%.Therefore,it is an effective way to ensure my country’s food security in the new era to optimize inter-regional resource allocation through measures such as improving the comparative income of grain cultivation,improving the rural financial market,and increasing fiscal expenditure.The innovations of this paper are mainly in the following three aspects:First,this paper studies the problem of food security from the perspective of reconfiguration of food production resources between north and south regions in China.It is generally considered that technical progress is the fundamental way out to ensure food security,but at present,it has entered the bottleneck period,and its contribution to grain production is close to the limit.Under this premise,how to promote the continuous increase of food production and effectively ensure our food security by activating the stock resources is an important practical problem.Based on the historical fact that the pattern of grain production in China changed from "South grain to North grain" to "North grain to south grain",this paper analyzes the influence of the changes of labor,capital,land and other inputs between the North and south regions on the total grain production in China from the perspective of resource allocation.The research found that optimizing the situation of resource allocation between North and south regions can significantly improve the level of grain output,which is an effective way to ensure Chinese food security in the new era.Therefore,studying food security from the perspective of resource allocation in North and south regions is an innovation in this paper.Second,this paper combines and improves Syrquin’s total factor productivity growth decomposition model and Akoi’s resource mismatch model,and applies them to analyze the redistribution of grain production resources between the North and South regions of China.In this way,the contribution of resource reallocation to grain yield increase will be analyzed comprehensively,the allocation of grain production resources between the North and South regions will be evaluated,and the loss of grain production efficiency caused by resource misallocation will be calculated.The existing researches on resource allocation are generally divided into two categories: first,the multi-sector growth model of structuralism(total factor productivity growth decomposition model)is applied to analyze the effect of resource realallocation in aggregate output or total factor productivity growth.Second,the resource mismatch model is applied to measure the degree of resource mismatch and efficiency loss.Although the former can reflect the contribution of resource reallocation to aggregate output growth,it cannot reflect the efficiency degree of current resource allocation.Although the latter can measure the efficiency degree of current resource allocation,it cannot measure the contribution of resource reallocation to aggregate output growth.Only by combining the two can we analyze the resource allocation problem systematically and comprehensively,but such research is still rare at present.This paper first expanded Syrquin’s two-factor TFP growth model into a three-factor model including land,and applied it to grain production to analyze the contribution of resource reallocation between the North and the South to grain increase and total factor productivity growth in China.Then,by improving Akoi’s resource misallocation model,we evaluated the situation of grain production resource allocation between the South and the North of China,and calculated the loss of grain production efficiency caused by resource misallocation.The above is the innovation of the research method in this paper.Thirdly,the paper points out that to ensure food security in China depends on scientific and technological progress in the long term,and to utilize existing resources and optimize the allocation of resources among regions in the short term.Since reform and opening up,our grain production of each step of one million tons of steps needed time is 6 years,12 years,16 years,and shows the increasing trend.According to the prediction of relevant scholars,if other conditions remain unchanged,China’s grain output will exceed 700 million tons in 2026.Through calculation and calculation,it is found that the misallocation of resources between the North and the South in China’s grain production will bring significant efficiency loss.If the situation of resource misallocation is improved,China should achieve its goal of producing more than 700 million tons of grain in 2020.Therefore,optimizing the situation of food production resources allocation between the North and the south can effectively improve our food security level,which is the innovation in this paper’s viewpoint. |
