Small-Scale Agricultural Product Price Forecast Based On The Influence Of Network Public Opinions

In recent years,small-scale agricultural prices in our country often skyrocket and plunge,which not only seriously damages the interests of farmers and consumers,but also has a great impact on the social and economic stability and people’s well-being.With the development of the Internet,online public opinions affect the behavioral decisions of stakeholders in the industrial chain of small-scale agricultural products to a certain extent,and thus affect the price fluctuations of small-scale agricultural products.Therefore,this paper explores the influence of online public opinion on the price fluctuations of small-scale agricultural products,excavates the influencing factors of price fluctuations of small-scale agricultural products,and makes maximum use of market information of small-scale agricultural products,thus improving the accuracy of price prediction and opening up a new perspective for the study of price changes of small-scale agricultural products.It has certain theoretical value and important practical significance to promote the healthy and stable development of Small-scale agricultural products industry.Based on the business cycle theory and the equilibrium price theory,the time series decomposition method and econometrics method were used to analyze the seasonal,trend,periodic and random fluctuation characteristics,as well as the aggregation and asymmetry characteristics of the price fluctuation of small agricultural products in China.Then,field investigation and questionnaire survey are used to explore the influencing factors of behavioral decisions of different stakeholders in small-scale agricultural products,and the analysis is made according to grey correlation analysis.Then,the emotion analysis method is used to make a quantitative analysis of the unstructured online public opinion information,and according to the constructed online public opinion sentiment index combined with the monthly data of Small-scale agricultural product price,the spillover effect and time-varying influence of different themes of online public opinion on the market price of small-scale agricultural products are analyzed.This paper reveals the conduction mechanism between online public opinion and price fluctuation of small-scale agricultural products and the correlation between Small-scale agricultural products market.Then,the dynamic model average theory in econometrics is introduced to predict the price fluctuation of Small-scale agricultural products by combining the network public opinion and traditional influencing factors,and the time-varying characteristics of each influencing factor are described.Finally,based on the above conclusions,this paper puts forward some relevant policy suggestions to stabilize the market price and promote the healthy development of the agricultural industry.The main research contents are as follows:(1)The price fluctuation of small-scale agricultural products has significant characteristics of seasonality,trend,periodicity,randomness and aggregation,while the characteristics of high risk,high return and asymmetry of Small-scale agricultural products price fluctuation are different due to different traditional planting habits and different market trading mechanism.(2)Different influencing factors of price fluctuation based on different stakeholders in the industrial chain of Small-scale agricultural products.Based on the perspective of different stakeholders in the industrial chain of small-scale agricultural products,the most important factors affecting the price fluctuation of small-scale agricultural products are mainly production cost,market conditions and alternative prices of Small-scale agricultural products,followed by weather and economic environment,and finally output and eating habits.(3)There is a strong spillover effect of online public opinion on the price fluctuation of small-scale agricultural products market.The spillover effect of online public opinion on price theme is stronger from the fluctuations of other markets,and the spillover effect of online public opinion on healthy life theme is stronger on the fluctuations of other markets.There is also a strong pin-two spillover effect between small-scale agricultural products markets.(4)The influence of different themes of online public opinions on the price fluctuation of Small-scale agricultural products has significant time-varying characteristics.The online public opinion on price theme has the greatest influence on the price of garlic,and the online public opinion on healthy life theme has the greatest influence on the price of chili.These influences are positive and short-term,which will gradually weaken with the passing of time.The online public opinions on price theme had the largest impulse response to the price fluctuation of Small-scale agricultural products at the time point in October 2016,while the online public opinions on healthy life theme had the largest impulse response to the price fluctuation of Small-scale agricultural products at the time point in January 2020.(5)Compared with traditional econometric models,small-scale agricultural product price prediction model based on dynamic model average theory has higher prediction accuracy.The average theory of dynamic model can make full use of the factors influencing the price of agricultural products by selecting the time varying degree of explanatory variables and coefficients dynamically,so as to effectively improve the forecasting accuracy of agricultural products prices in small-scale.(6)Put forward relevant suggestions for the healthy and stable development of Small-scale agricultural products market.First,we should guide farmers rationally and encourage the planting and production of small-scale agricultural products to become more specialized,organized and industrialized,so as to improve farmers’ bargaining power.Second,real-time monitoring of online public opinion information to improve the supervision capacity of online public opinion exchange platform;Third,improve the comprehensive information platform of the whole industrial chain of small-scale agricultural products,strengthen the monitoring and early warning of market information.