Study On Price Fuluctuations Of Major Agricultural Products And Proposed Interventions

The price of agricultural products is subject to the influence of multiple factors,long-term price change is mainly constrained by supply-demand relation,while short-term price fluctuation is often caused by emergencies and accidental factors.Frequent ups and downs of the price of China’s agricultural products in recent years have greatly affected agricultural development,socioeconomic stability and people’s livelihood.Therefore,discovering the pattern of price fluctuation of agricultural products by analyzing the complex phenomenon of price changes of agricultural products,making predications on the price fluctuation and taking effective price adjustment measures to respond to the complex changes on the market of agricultural products preemptively,is of crucial theoretical and practical value for stabilizing the market price of agricultural produces,protecting rights and interests of producers and consumers of agricultural products and promoting the supply-side structural reform in agriculture.Study on price fluctuation of agricultural products and regulation measures is not only an immediate demand of current modern agricultural development,but also an important content of study on which breakthroughs need to be made by agricultural information analytics.The reflection of price fluctuation of agricultural products is the complex phenomenon of market change.In the process of development of market economy over the past more than 30 years,many scholars have conducted empirical and theoretical studies on the price of agricultural products at different stages from the perspectives of fluctuation phenomenon,fluctuation features and fluctuation measurement methods,however,it remains a difficult subject to analyze the pattern of price fluctuation of agricultural products in a systematic way,discover the main reason for fluctuation and measure the rate of fluctuation in a quantitative manner.This paper has systematically collected,compiled and processed the daily,monthly and yearly data of price of major agricultural products over the past 15 years,and systematically studied features and patterns of price of major agricultural products in China since 2000,based on the data compiled and factors that affect and decide the price of agricultural products at the supply and consumption ends and other relevant data.This paper analyzed factors that affect price fluctuation of agricultural products such as production,consumption,meteorology,policy and international factors,and discovered the relationship between price fluctuation of vegetables and pork,two typical agricultural commodities and variables through price stability evaluation and correlation analysis of price fluctuation rate.This paper conducted modeling and analysis of LSSVM projection of wholesale price fluctuation of agricultural products and worked on empirical modeling,projection and analysis of price fluctuation rate of agricultural products.The following conclusions were arrived at through the above-mentioned analysis: 1.The price of agricultural products in China has generally entered into a period of changing features of fluctuation for different types of commodities.Comparison of yearly data of grain,wheat,corn,meat,vegetables and fruits shows that the price determined by government administration during the era of planned economy has been transitioning towards market-decided price;the frequency and range of price fluctuation have intensified and the market is playing a decisive role in the price of agricultural products.In the recent 16 years,the price of vegetables has fluctuated wildly than that of meat,and the price of meat has fluctuated to a greater extent than that of grain;this shows the features of market regulation policies of agricultural products in China with the grain market moderately regulated by the government and regulations on the meat market being basically lifted.2.Study shows the ranking of range of fluctuation of wholesale price of selected agricultural products during the 192 months from 2000 to 2015.Vegetable price fluctuated most wildly,with 73 times of significant and violent fluctuations,followed by fruits with 64 times of significant and violent fluctuations and 41 for aquatic products,17 for chicken egg and 7 for pork.Cycles of price fluctuation for pork,beef,mutton,chicken egg,vegetables and fruits over the past 16 years were generated through trend decomposition with HP filter method.Analysis of all commodities shows that price of agricultural products was generally stable in the 7-8 years after 2000,and the recent 5 years are the most unstable period for the price of agricultural products with shortened change cycles and intensified frequency of fluctuation.3.Analysis of factors and features of price fluctuation of agricultural products,production cost is an important reason driving up the price of agricultural products,but there are also other main driving forces.In the recent 16 years,grain production cost rose by 2.11 folds,2.09 folds for cereals,2.03 folds for wheat,2.14 folds for corn,3.22 folds for vegetables and 2.09 folds for free-range pig production.As for consumption factors,there were obvious price fluctuation before and after festivals and holidays.The production of agricultural products directly affects the supply,thus affecting price movement;the price of fresh and live agricultural products is greatly affected by environment factors,such as climate.4.The study put forward the concept of identification zone of price fluctuation of agricultural products and the method of designing the identification zone and the way of application.According to the design of the zoning theory,this paper put forward zoning of dimensions of agricultural production.Based on geographical space of production zoning and threshold of early warning of price of agricultural products calculated by kernel density estimation,this paper studied probability density distribution map of various zones of cabbage,spinach,eggplant and tomato,identified the threshold of early warning of identification zone of price fluctuation and provided effective and relevant tools for policy regulation tool application of the price fluctuation of agricultural products.5.This paper studied and put forward projection models of analysis of price fluctuation and rate of fluctuation of agricultural products.This paper analyzed functions of analysis models of price fluctuations of agricultural products and variable selection,conducted modeling and analysis of LSSVM projection of rate of price fluctuation of agricultural products;analysis of rate of price fluctuation of agricultural products by this method is featured by limited variables in parameters,high calculation efficiency and sound projection.6.This paper studied regulation policy of price fluctuation of agricultural products.Different regulation policies have been implemented on products of different varieties;price support policy is introduced to grain,cotton and oil.While giving full play to the role of the government and the market,the government should strengthen market information guidance to fresh and live agricultural products,publish authoritative information in a timely manner and give full play to the role of market in resource allocation.The areas of innovation include: first,this paper has systematically analyzed and distilled features of price fluctuation of agricultural products in recent 15 years and measured price fluctuation cycles and frequencies of fluctuation for several commodities,analyzed factors leading to the price change of agricultural products and put forward conclusions that the past 15 years were featured by relatively stable price over the early and middle stages,big fluctuation during the latter stage and shorted change cycles of agricultural products;these could provide effective reference for monitoring,early warning of market price of agricultural products and application of policy tools.Second,this paper studied and put forward projection model for analysis of price fluctuation and rate of fluctuation of agricultural products,conducted modeling and analysis of LSSVM projection of rate of price fluctuation of agricultural products,converting complex problem of optimization into easy linear equation,suitable for data intelligent analysis of small sample size.Third,this paper explored and put forward the concept of zoning of identification of price fluctuation of agricultural products,measured threshold of early warning of price of agricultural products based on the kernel density estimation,studied and completed probability density distribution map of 11 zones on cabbage,spinach,eggplant and tomato,identified early-warning threshold of identification zone of price fluctuation and provided an important and basic method for policy regulation tool application of the price fluctuation of agricultural products.