Research On The Local Industrial Spatial Policy Continuity Based On Land Supply Data

Local industrial spatial policy refers to the industrial policy of the local government with the industrial spatial layout as the adjustment object.Frequent adjustments of location orientation often occur in the process of local industrial development,which highlights the problem of discontinuity of local industrial spatial policy.In recent years,the Central Committee has repeatedly emphasized the importance of “sticking to one blueprint to the end”,which reflects its great concern for the continuity of local economic policy with industrial spatial policy as the core.Therefore,it is necessary to systematically study the main influencing factors and economic consequences of the continuity of local industrial spatial policy based on its quantitative measurement,so as to provide theoretical basis and strategic guidance for promoting the development and improvement of industrial policy with Chinese characteristics.This paper takes the change of industrial land supply location as the representation of the change of local industrial spatial policy,innovatively designs and constructs a policy change index(index named PCI),measures and describes the continuity of local industrial spatial policy in recent years for the first time.Based on the measurement results,this paper theoretically and empirically analyzes the impact effect and corresponding mechanism of local political turnover on the continuity of local industrial spatial policy,as well as the influences of industrial spatial policy discontinuity on economic input-output,economic efficiency and technological development.The main conclusions drawn in this paper are:(1)The overall continuity of China’s local industrial spatial policy continued to decline before 2013 but then improved,and the continuity is low in the eastern coastal areas but high in the central and western regions with spatial clustering.(2)The turnover of local leading officials is an important reason for the decline of continuity of local industrial spatial policy.Local officials,motivated by the increasing of personal contribution ratio as well as the local economic performance(zheng ji),tend to weaken the original key development areas and then establish new ones at the beginning of taking up the official post,thus significantly adjust the local industrial spatial policy.The turnover of city chief can lead to an increase of 5.6%standard deviation in the degree of policy discontinuity measured by the PCI index.(3)The discontinuity of industrial spatial policy leads to the increase of economic input and the decline of output.For every 1 standard deviation increase in PCI index,the number and asset scale of urban industrial enterprises will increase by 3% and 1.4% standard deviation respectively,but the growth rate of GDP and that of total industrial output value will decrease by 6.9% and 7.6% standard deviation respectively.(4)The discontinuity of industrial spatial policy has a negative impact on urban economic efficiency and technological development.The increase of one standard deviation of PCI index can lead to the decline of urban total factor productivity by 9.1% standard deviation,and the impact only exists when the policy is excessively adjusted.In terms of technological development,the increase of one standard deviation of PCI index can lead to a decrease of 2% standard deviation in the number of three types of patent authorizationsThe corresponding policy recommendations given by this paper are:(1)Using the PCI index proposed by this paper,one can evaluate the continuity of local industrial spatial policy,and then focus on the problem of policy discontinuity of relevant regions.(2)In order to better maintain the continuity of industrial spatial policy,it’s especially important to control policy discontinuity across terms of office,so as to avoid the new leading officials from greatly adjusting policy out of their personal needs related to political performance.(3)When making necessary adjustments to the industrial spatial policy,local governments should issue supporting policies to encourage technological innovation of enterprises,in order to reduce the negative impact of policy changes on technological development and productivity.