| Under the basic national and agricultural conditions of a large country with small farmers and a large population with little land,agricultural socialized services play a key role in ensuring basic food security,promoting agricultural scale operations,enhancing agricultural production efficiency,promoting agricultural transformation and upgrading and other major agricultural issues.Since the 18 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,the construction and development of agricultural socialized services has been elevated to a new level,which is not only an effective medium to promote the integration of small farmers into modern agriculture,but also the core key to the modernization of agriculture and rural areas with Chinese characteristics.In the objective background of continuous outflow of agricultural labor,frequent increase of land abandonment and serious land fragmentation,the issues of how to deal with the contradiction between people and land and how to crack the problem of "who should plant the land and how to plant the land well" has become more and more prominent than ever before.So,do agricultural socialized services formed based on accelerated productivity development,deep division of labor and smooth commodity circulation help alleviate the contradiction between human and land,ensure food security and promote high-quality agricultural development? In the context of the top-level design of China’s agricultural policy guiding the parallelization of agricultural socialized services and land transfer,what is the common mechanism of their joint effects on agricultural development? What are the differences in the effects of different agricultural socialized services on land transfer and agricultural production effects? To answer the above questions,based on the individual level of micro farm operators,this study examines and tests in depth the inner logical relationship and the mechanism of influence between the effects of agricultural socialized services,land transfer and agricultural production.This study is conducive to providing theoretical support and empirical evidence for enriching and improving the policy system of agricultural modernization development with Chinese characteristics.Based on the theory of farmers’ behavior,the theory of induced technological innovation,the theory of transaction cost,and the theory of division of labor and cooperation,this study constructs a theoretical analysis framework of "service adoption-land transfer-production effect" of farmers.According to the logical line of "theoretical analysis-empirical research-countermeasures exploration",this study systematically investigates the mechanism of the effects of agricultural socialized services,land transfer and agricultural production effect.The research content of this study includes the analysis of the characteristics of the stages of development of agricultural socialized services and land transfer,the analysis of farmers’ agricultural socialized service adoption behavior and its role in influencing the decision of land transfer behavior and the impact on agricultural production effect.Specifically: first,this study uses policy documents and statistical data to comprehensively sort out the development history and problems of agricultural socialized services and land transfer at the macro level;on the other hand,it uses survey data to statistically analyze farmers’ service adoption and land transfer behavior at the micro level.Second,we explore the impact of agricultural socialized services on the decision of land transfer behavior.Based on the field research data of rice farmers in Sichuan Province in2020,we used an endogeneity switch model to empirically test the impact of service adoption on farmers’ land "transfer participation-transfer scale-continuous transfer willingness ".We further compare the differences in the impact of different service contents on land transfer decision behavior.Third,from the perspective of improving production efficiency,we examined the enhancement effect of agricultural socialized services on the technical efficiency of agricultural production.This study applies a stochastic production frontier model based on sample selection to accurately assess the enhancement effect of service adoption on the technical efficiency of agricultural production,and further analyzes the differences in the effects of different service contents on agricultural production effects and tests the mechanism of the effect of land transfer-in.Fourth,from the perspective of ensuring food security,we explore the impact of agricultural socialized service adoption on agricultural output.Using endogenous switch model,we examine the yield-enhancing effect of service adoption on agricultural output,and further analyze the differences in the impact of different service contents on agricultural output and examine the mechanism of the role of land transfer-in.Fifth,from the perspective of sustainable agricultural development,we explore the impact of agricultural socialized services on agricultural green production technology behavior.Using an endogeneity treatment Poisson model to control for the selfselection effect of farmers’ service adoption,this study examines the effect of service adoption on the number of farmers’ agricultural green production behavior adoption;and further analyzes in depth the differences in the effects of different services on green production technology behavior and verifies the mechanism of the role of land transfer-in.The main findings of this study are as follows,(1)Agricultural socialized services have entered a new era of quality-oriented,diversified and multi-level development.Agricultural socialized services have gone through the development process of budding formation and gradual exploration,and have entered a new period of comprehensive development in terms of quality orientation,model innovation and content expansion.However,there are still real problems in their development such as insufficient overall output value,misalignment of service supply and demand structure,uneven service quality and difficulty in meeting diversified service demands.(2)The adoption of agricultural socialized services has a significant positive effect on farmers’ decision to transfer to land.Service adoption has a positive effect on farmers’ land transfer participation,transfer size,and willingness to continue to transfer.In response to the service adoption farmers,their land transfer participation rate increased by 13.7%,land transfer area increased by 74.34%,and the likelihood of continuous land transfer in the future would increase by 4.2%.(3)Agricultural socialized service is an important determinant of promoting the effect of agricultural production.In terms of efficiency improvement,service adoption facilitates the technical efficiency of agricultural production of farm households,with the average technical efficiency of production of service adopters(93%)being about 4% higher than that of non-adopters(89%).In terms of agricultural output,service adoption has a significant positive effect on agricultural output.Using services can increase the average agricultural output of farmers by 0.84%.If farmers who do not use services use services,their average agricultural output will increase by 1.8%;In terms of green transformation,service adoption helps to promote farmers to adopt green production behaviors,and the number of agricultural green production behaviors of service adopters is 1.253 times higher than that of non-harvest users.(4)Land transfer is an important channel through which agricultural socialized services affect agricultural production effects.The mediating effect model tested that land transfer has a significant mediating effect in the path of service adoption on the technical efficiency of agricultural production,agricultural output and the adoption of green production behavior.Moreover,the mediating effects of land transfer area accounted for 13.09%,70.40% and32.12% of the total effect,and the mediating effects of scale operation accounted for 11.86%,45.57% and 22.80%,respectively.(5)The role of different service contents in influencing the decision of land transfer behavior varies.This study focuses on the analysis of agricultural socialized services closely related to the rice production chain,which mainly contains agricultural supply services,agricultural credit services,agricultural technology services and agricultural machinery services.In this study,the average treatment effects of different service contents on the three stages of land transfer decision were estimated by using the endogenous transformation model,and the combined effects of the three stages were found to be agricultural credit services,agricultural machinery services,agricultural supply services,and agricultural technology services in descending order.Agricultural credit services had the largest effect on land transfer participation and willingness to sustain transfer.(6)There are differences in the magnitude of the effects of different service contents on agricultural production.A comparative analysis of the breakdown of agricultural socialized services shows the following findings.First,in terms of the impact on the technical efficiency of agricultural production,the technical efficiency of the adoption of different services was estimated through a stochastic frontier production model based on sample selection,and a comparison of the results revealed the most significant role of agricultural credit services,followed by agricultural supply services,and then agricultural technology services and agricultural machinery services.Second,for the impact on agricultural output,the average treatment effect of agricultural output under different services was estimated by the endogeneity transformation model,and the comparative analysis found that agricultural credit services had the most significant effect,followed by agricultural supply services,agricultural technology services and agricultural machinery services;finally,for the impact on agricultural green production behavior,agricultural technology services and agricultural supply services had a significant positive effect,while the effects of agricultural machinery services and agricultural credit services were not significant.Based on the research conclusions,the following countermeasures are proposed,(1)The government needs to strengthen its leadership and support,and improve the top-level design of agricultural policies.Based on the realistic scenario of agriculture and rural areas with Chinese characteristics,focus on the strategic direction of combining government guidance and market orientation in the development of agricultural socialized services;increase national financial support to create a favorable policy environment for the development of agricultural socialized services;promote the role of the Internet as a booster in the development of agricultural socialized services;encourage and support the construction of service personnel to provide strong support for agricultural socialized services.(2)Promote the professional and precise development of service organizations to realize the effective supply of services.Innovate service models and contents to meet the differential demand for socialized services,encourage the development of diversified agricultural socialized service models and multi-type service contents according to local conditions;improve agricultural credit support services and expand agricultural financial credit access channels;improve the agricultural technology service system and promote the organic integration of agricultural technology and production;improve the quality of agricultural machinery services and expand the market scale of agricultural machinery services;strengthen agricultural materials supply services to ensure the safe and effective supply of agricultural production materials.(3)Strengthen the education and organization of farm households and enhance their ability to obtain services.Strengthen the organization of small farmers’ production and guide the cooperation and association of agricultural production;strengthen agricultural education and training to improve farmers’ agricultural knowledge;improve the infrastructure condition of farmers’ production and provide conditions for farmers’ access to agricultural socialized services.(4)Coordinate the balanced development of land transfer and socialized services to promote large-scale agricultural operations.While paying attention to the development of socialized services,we should also pay attention to land transfer and encourage "two legs to walk";continue to support the promotion of land transfer and the full and rational use of arable land resources;optimize the design of land transfer policies by taking into account the basic principles of equity and efficiency;standardize the construction of land transfer markets and platforms,and promote the healthy development of land transfer.The innovations of this study mainly include the following three points,(1)The theoretical framework of "service adoption-land transfer-agricultural production effect" is constructed by integrating agricultural socialized services,land transfer and agricultural production effect into the same analytical framework.The theoretical framework of "service adoption-land transfer-agricultural production effect" is constructed.The theoretical knowledge and methods of management,economics and sociology are integrated,and the objective is to maximize farmers’ household income by combining services and scale,and analyzing the mechanism of their joint effects on the technical efficiency of agricultural production,agricultural output and the transformation of agricultural production.From the perspective of service adoption and land transfer,this study incorporates service and land into an integrated analysis logical framework for systematic analysis,which is conducive to promoting the enrichment and improvement of research on the integration of socialized agricultural services and land transfer,and promoting a sound socialized agricultural service system with Chinese characteristics.(2)We examine farmers’ land transfer decision-making behavior from three decisionmaking levels: "transfer participation,transfer scale,and continuous transfer".Agriculture is affected by the natural environment and has a high risk of uncertainty,so it is difficult to accurately grasp the stability of farmers’ agricultural operations by studying only a single level.In view of this,this study attempts to empirically analyze the average treatment effect of farmers’ agricultural socialized service adoption on the three stages of land transfer behavior decision using a counterfactual analysis framework and an econometric model,controlling for farmers’ self-selection bias.(3)A combined study of the effect of agricultural socialized service adoption on the technical efficiency of farm household agricultural production using a stochastic production frontier model(SPF-Selection bias)based on sample selection correction and a propensity score matching method.The effects of observable and unobservable factors on the adoption of socialized agricultural services and their impact on the technical efficiency of agricultural production are fully considered.In view of this,this study selects more cutting-edge empirical models such as the SPF-Selection bias model to accurately estimate the mechanism of the impact of socialized agricultural service adoption on the technical efficiency of agricultural production. |
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