Research On The Symbiotic Industrial Transfer Between China And The Belt And Road Countries

President Xi Jinping proposed "the Belt and Road initiative" in 2013,aiming to expand and deepen the level of regional cooperation through the construction of "the Belt and Road" and create an open,inclusive and mutually beneficial international cooperation platform.Its essence is to practice the concept of "community with a shared future for mankind",which is an important embodiment of mutualistic and symbiotic development.As an important part of "the Belt and Road" construction,industrial transfer is not only an effective path for bilateral industrial cooperation,but also an important carrier to promote regional mutualistic and symbiotic development.How to effectively promote the industrial transfer of bilateral countries to achieve a mutually beneficial and win-win cooperation pattern is an important research topic of academic concern.Different from the previous industrial transfer dominated by developed countries,which is based on their own interests to eliminate backward production capacity and obtain low-cost factor resources,the industrial transfer between China and countries along "the Belt and Road" follows the principle of "extensive consultation,joint contribution,and shared benefits ",emphasizing the interaction and symbiosis of the industrial chain,the complementary sharing of resources,and the mutual benefit and win-win of regional cooperation.Obviously,the traditional industrial transfer theory based on comparative advantage theory to analyze and guide the industrial transfer between China and the countries along "the Belt and Road" is limited.It requires us to combine the experience of industrial transfer in developed countries in the past,analyze the industrial transfer between China and the countries along "the Belt and Road" from the perspective of industrial symbiosis,and innovate the industrial transfer model.Since "the Belt and Road" initiative was proposed ten years ago,China’s industrial cooperation with "the Belt and Road" has achieved fruitful results and gradually become an internationally recognized cooperation platform for trade and investment.However,some western countries and some international community groups have been questioning the purpose of "the Belt and Road" Initiative and even misinterpreting it as China’s geopolitical tool.The report of the 20 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly pointed out that it is necessary to deepen the construction of "the Belt and Road" and promote its high-quality development to build a more open international cooperation platform.This requires an in-depth analysis of the symbiotic effect of industrial transfer between China and countries along "the Belt and Road" from both theoretical and empirical aspects to verify whether it has formed a symbiotic industrial transfer.The research on these issues is conducive to promoting high-quality industrial cooperation between China and countries along "the Belt and Road" and providing theoretical support and empirical evidence to respond to the questioning of the motivation of some countries with ulterior motives towards the initiative.Based on the background of building a mutually beneficial and win-win "the Belt and Road" industrial chain cooperation system,this paper introduces the symbiosis theory to analyze the industrial transfer between China and the countries along "the Belt and Road".The main research content includes the following five aspects: First,based on the theory of symbiosis,global value chain theory,and industrial transfer theory,this paper studies the symbiosis thought of industrial transfer between China and the countries along "the Belt and Road" from the realistic background of jointly building "the Belt and Road",puts forward the concept of symbiotic industrial transfer.The system composition of symbiotic industrial transfer is analyzed from the aspects of component elements,forming conditions and symbiotic mode of symbiotic theory.Second,analyze the impact of industrial transfer between China and countries along "the Belt and Road" on industrial symbiosis,builds a theoretical analysis framework of symbiosis industrial transfer,and discusses the theoretical logic and internal mechanism of symbiosis industrial transfer between China and countries along "the Belt and Road".Logistic model was used to analyze the equilibrium point and stability conditions of symbiotic industrial transfer model evolution.On this basis,MATLAB software is used for numerical simulation to simulate the optimal output level under different symbiotic industrial transfer modes to explore its evolution rule.Third,starting from the division of labor in the global value chain and based on the multi-level total trade flow decomposition method,this paper attempting to construct inter-country industrial symbiotic indicators from the three aspects of integration,interaction,and coordination,measuring the level of industrial transfer and symbiosis between China and the countries along "the Belt and Road" from the perspective of value-added trade,analyzing their spatial layout and evolutionary characteristics,and revealing the development laws of industrial transfer and symbiosis.Fourth,by constructing a trade gravity model and using EORA world input-output data from 2002 to 2020,this paper empirically testing the symbiotic effects and internal operating mechanisms of industrial transfer between China and the countries along "the Belt and Road" from the three aspects of integration,interaction,and coordination of bilateral industries,providing empirical evidence for symbiotic industrial transfer between China and the countries along "the Belt and Road",and examining their heterogeneity from different regions,industries,and time periods.Finally,analyzing the four typical modes and evolutionary conditions of symbiotic industrial transfer between China and the countries along "the Belt and Road",and using the random forest algorithm in machine learning to identify the key factors affecting the evolution of symbiotic industrial transfer models.Based on this,combined with the current situation of symbiotic industrial transfer between China and the countries along "the Belt and Road",a path for the evolutionary upgrade of symbiotic industrial transfer models is proposed.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: First,based on the results of industry transfer and industry symbiosis,The levels of industrial transfer and industry symbiosis between China and other countries along "the Belt and Road" have gradually increased during the sample period.Whether from the perspective of industrial transfer or industrial symbiosis level,the market-oriented electrical and mechanical industry and labor cost-oriented textile and clothing industry between China and the countries along "the Belt and Road" are relatively good,and the industrial transfer and industrial symbiosis level between China and neighboring Southeast Asian countries are relatively high.Second,the industrial transfer between China and countries along "the Belt and Road" significantly promotes the level of industrial mutualism characterized by bilateral integration,interaction and coordination.This promoting effect is mainly achieved through promoting regional value chain cooperation and improving the level of industrial agglomeration,which proves that China and countries along "the Belt and Road" have formed symbiotic industrial transfer and verifies its inherent mechanism.At the same time,the symbiotic industrial transfer has become more significant between China and developed countries along "the Belt and Road",in high-tech industries,and after the launch of "the Belt and Road" initiative.Third,there are four modes of symbiotic industrial transfer between China and countries along "the Belt and Road" : parasitic symbiosis,partial symbiosis,asymmetric mutualism and symmetric mutualism,and they can evolve with each other.Symmetrical mutualism is the most stable and efficient ideal symbiosis mode.According to the current situation of the symbiotic industrial transfer model between China and the countries along "the Belt and Road" in 2020,China is in a biased symbiosis mode with Guyana,Burundi,Serbia,and Gambia,while it is in an asymmetric mutualism mode with other "the Belt and Road" countries,and the benefits brought by China to "the Belt and Road" countries far outweigh its own benefits.From the perspective of its evolution path,enhancing industrial dependence and bilateral friendly relations can effectively promote the evolution and upgrading of the symbiotic industry transfer between China and the countries along "the Belt and Road" to the symmetric mutualism model.This paper mainly has the following three innovations : First,based on the symbiosis theory,this paper starts with the construction of a new type of partnership for win-win cooperation,reveals the basic law of symbiosis of industrial transfer between China and countries along "the Belt and Road",puts forward the basic concept of symbiotic industrial transfer,constructs a theoretical analysis framework of symbiotic industrial transfer,discusses the intrinsic mechanism of symbiotic industrial transfer between China and countries along "the Belt and Road",deepens the understanding of the inherent laws of industrial transfer between China and countries along "the Belt and Road",and expands the theoretical research on international industrial transfer and industrial symbiosis.Second,the indicators of industrial symbiosis between countries are constructed from the three aspects of integration,interaction and coordination,and the level of industrial symbiosis between China and countries along "the Belt and Road" is calculated to describe the bilateral industrial symbiosis relationship.It provides theoretical support and empirical evidence for high-quality promotion of industrial cooperation along "the Belt and Road",and response to the questioning of the motives raised by some countries with ulterior motives.Third,by comprehensively applying various methods such as logistic modeling,MATLAB simulation,and machine learning,this paper systematically studies the basic mode,stability conditions,influencing factors,evolution and upgrading of symbiotic industrial transfer between China and countries along "the Belt and Road",and puts forward corresponding policy suggestions.It provides theoretical support and policy basis for promoting the industrial transfer between China and the countries along "the Belt and Road" to achieve mutual benefit and win-win results,and evolution and upgrading along the path of symmetric mutualism.At the same time,it provides new ideas for the orderly design of industrial transfer between China and the countries along "the Belt and Road".