Factor Flow,Industrial Convergence And Regional Economic Resilience

A new round of global scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation is accelerating,and new demands,new industries,new forms of business and new models are springing up.At the same time,the global economic situation is changing,and the rules of international manufacturing trade are changing,bringing new opportunities and new challenges to the economic development of countries around the world.The speed and scale of development are the advantages of China’s economy,but how to become the world’s most resilient economy is a problem that must be seriously considered under the new normal of high-quality development of China’s economy.Therefore,it is of great significance to carry out the research on regional economic resilience from the perspective of micro factors and medium industry.Labor,capital,technology and information are all important production factors in a region,and factor flow enables each factor to achieve optimal allocation within or between regions.According to the dynamic location theory of factor flow and the theory of new economic geography,factor flow will affect the industrial structure,and industrial convergence is an inevitable trend for the progress of social productivity and the upgrading of industrial structure.It can be seen that the impact of factor flow on regional economic resilience is likely to be affected by the regulatory effect of industrial convergence.Based on the above considerations,this paper,from the perspective of "micro-meso-macro" and following the research logic of "problem elicitation-theoretical analysis-empirical test-policy suggestions",examines the impact of factor flow on regional economic resilience,the impact of industrial convergence on regional economic resilience,and the regulatory effect of industrial convergence on factor flow’s impact on regional economic resilience.It is hoped to provide scientific guidance for China to further promote high-quality economic development.First,the concepts of factor flow,industrial convergence and regional economic resilience are defined.Based on relevant theories,theoretical analysis is made on the impact mechanism of factor flow on regional economic resilience,the impact mechanism of industrial convergence on regional economic resilience,and the regulatory transmission path of industrial convergence in the impact of factor flow on regional economic resilience.Three hypotheses are proposed: The flow of various factors has an alienating effect on the overall regional economic resilience of China,in which the flow of labor factors inhibits the regional economic resilience,while the flow of capital,technology and information factors promotes the regional economic resilience.Industrial convergence has a dissimilating effect on the local and regional economic resilience,which presents a promoting effect in the local area and an "inverted U-shaped" effect on the domain.Industrial convergence can mitigate the negative impact of labor flow on regional economic resilience,and enhance the positive impact of capital,technology and information factors on regional economic resilience.Thus,the theoretical analysis frame of this paper is constructed systematically.Second,considering the three response paths of regional economy after the impact,this paper explores the construction of an evaluation Index system of regional economic resilience,and uses methods such as Index-DEA model and Moran index to scientifically measure and comprehensively analyze the spatio-temporal evolution of regional economic resilience of 283 cities from 2003 to2020.The main findings are as follows: From the results of global temporal evolution analysis,the comprehensive index of regional economic resilience in China shows an upward trend from 2003 to 2020,and the differences among cities in regional economic resilience in China are gradually narrowing.According to the results of local temporal evolution analysis,the eastern part has obvious advantages compared with the other three plates,showing a significant "two-step structure".In terms of specific cities,Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou,Nanjing,Zhuhai and other economically developed regions have always been in a leading position in the ranking of regional economic resilience.In addition,from the results of spatial evolution analysis,the comprehensive index of regional economic resilience in China shows a positive spatial autocorrelation.Then,considering the spatial correlation of regional economic resilience,the spatial Durbin model was used to empirically test the impact of factor flows on regional economic resilience,the impact of industrial convergence on regional economic resilience,and the regulatory effect of industrial convergence on the impact of factor flows on regional economic resilience,and the effect was decomposed.The effect heterogeneity was considered from three aspects: temporal heterogeneity,regional heterogeneity and urban level heterogeneity.Key findings are as follows:First,labor factor flow,capital factor flow and information factor flow all have significant impacts on regional resilience and have significant spatial effects,while the estimated parameters of the impact of technology factor flow on regional economic resilience are positive,but not significant,and there is no significant spatial effect.It is found that the direct effect,indirect effect and total effect of labor factor flow are significantly negative,the three effects of capital factor flow are significantly positive,the three effects of technology factor flow are also positive but not significant,the direct effect of information factor flow is significantly positive and the indirect effect is significantly negative.Through the analysis of heterogeneity,it is found that although the effect of technology factor flow on China’s overall economic resilience is not significant,its direct effect is significantly positive in central cities and eastern cities.Second,industrial convergence has a direct effect on the resilience of the local economy,while in terms of the indirect effect,there is an "inverted U-shaped" effect that first promotes and then inhibits.The calculation of the inflection point shows that 227 samples are on the left side of the inflection point,and 56 samples are on the right side of the inflection point.The temporal heterogeneity results show that the actual impact of industrial convergence on the local regional economic resilience is significantly promoted during 2003-2012 and 2013-2020,but the "inverted U-shaped" effect on the spillover effect of neighboring cities is gradually not significant.The results of regional heterogeneity show that industrial convergence in eastern,central and western regions has a significant promoting effect on regional economic resilience,and the spatial spillover effect in eastern and central regions is significant,but not in western regions.The direct and indirect effects of industrial convergence in Northeast China on regional economic resilience are not significant.The results of city-level heterogeneity show that industrial convergence has a significant promoting effect on local regional economic resilience in both central and non-central cities,and the spatial spillover effect of central cities is actually negative,while the effect of non-central cities is "inverted U-shaped".Third,industrial convergence,as a regulating variable of factor flow affecting regional economic resilience,can be seen from the whole sample as follows:Industrial convergence can alleviate the adverse impact of labor flow on economic resilience,and strengthen the promoting role of capital and information flow on regional economic resilience,but the regulatory effect of industrial convergence on technological factor flow is not significant.Further analysis on the heterogeneity of technology factor flows shows that,from the perspective of temporal heterogeneity,compared with 2003-2012,industrial convergence can significantly enhance the promoting effect of technology factor flows on regional economic resilience during2013-2020,which confirms that industrial convergence is an important means to enhance regional economic resilience in China.From the perspective of regional heterogeneity,industrial convergence in the eastern,central and western regions can significantly enhance the promoting effect of local technology factor flow on regional economic resilience,and the regulating effect of industrial convergence in the eastern and western regions has positive spatial spillover effect on technology factor flow.From the perspective of urban hierarchical heterogeneity,industrial convergence in central cities can significantly enhance the promoting effect of local technology factor flow on regional economic resilience.Finally,according to the research conclusions and combined with the current situation of China,targeted policy suggestions are proposed to enhance the resilience of China’s regional economy from three aspects: attaching importance to the resilience of economic development and achieve high-quality economic development;deepening the market-oriented allocation reform of factors,improving the efficiency of factor allocation;promoting industrial convergence and amplifying the regulator effect.