Emergency Path Selection Based On Scenario Analysis

In order to deal with the frequent emergencies, it is urgent need to solve the coordinate transportation of the relief supplies, personnel and vehicles problem. Because the emergent events have obvious features of complexity and potential secondary derivative harm, it may cause the different impacts on different areas in different time with the dispersal and evolution from the initial scenario. For example, it can cause uncertain situation such as the damage of road infrastructure, changes of secondary weather, personnel and the congestion of vehicles, and so on, which make transportation path selection very difficult. In this case, it is impossible to obtain sections accurate information e.g. passing time in short time. Therefore, it is necessary and meaningful to choose reasonable emergency path in this kind of uncertain network scenario environment.For uncertainty of the transport network caused by the occurrence and development of emergencies, combined with the method of Scenario Analysis, following the idea of "scenario analysis (scenario expression and evaluation)-scenario modeling-scenario calculation", we study the problem of emergency path selection under uncertain information. The main contents of this paper are as follows:(1) Defining emergency path selection under uncertain information, it establishes scenario analysis tree in the road network environment under the emergent conditions of emergent events based on Scenario Analysis method. It constructs uncertain multiple attribute vectors by extracting key scenario factors influencing road. And then it solves the description and expression problem of road network scenario.(2) This article constructs diagram of scenario analysis with consideration of qualitative description of road network scenario. And then it evaluates every scenario attribute using a variety of secondary indexes. Scenario is transformed from qualitative description to quantitive evaluation using uncertain scenarios probability, the Fuzzy Evaluation of indicators of scenarios.(3) Establishing ideal path for emergency road network, it shields the influence of different path length. Maximizing comprehensive satisfaction degrees, it constructs stochastic programming model for emergency path selection based on Scenario Analysis method. Emergency road network scenario is included in the uncertain multiple vector, and is nested in the path selection model. It reflects changes of scenarios by modeling. (4) For the problem and the characteristics of related model, it computes scenarios evaluation using algorithm of membership transformation M(1,2,3). And using the method of path selection and Monte Carlo Simulation, it solves the path selection model based on Scenario Analysis. It verifies emergency path selection model and the solving methods.For uncertainty emergency transport network caused by the occurance and derivation of emergency, this article establishes scenario analysis diagram of road network environment under conditions of emergency and the ideal path for scenario emergency road network. With emergency road network scenarios included in the uncertain multiple-attribute vector, this article constructs path selection model embedded scenarios. According to decision needs, decision makers, considering a variety of scenarios, can select the emergency path with maximal comprehensive satisfaction degrees by certain confidence level. It provides the certain reference for future research of Emergency Management.