Study On Ecological Carrying Capacity Of The Karst Region In The Northwest Of Guangxi Province Based On GIS And SD

Conflicts among population, resources and ecological environment become more and more severe with the increasing of population and with the development of social economy, and the problems resulted from lack of resources and depravation of ecosystem environment have been drawing close attention all over the world. Using ecological carrying capacity theory to study the interrelationship among region resource, ecological environment, increasing of population and social economy is the most commonly adopted method in ecological, geographical and economic research nowadays. The application of some new ration research methods, such as the system dynamics model (SD.), and some new technologies, such as geographical information system (GIS) is one of the most important developing tendencies in the studies of ecological carrying capacity.Applying the geographical information system techniques to the system dynamics model, according to the data obtained by remote sensing and investigating on the spot, this thesis takes as its research object karst region in northwest of Guangxi province, a weak area in ecosystem environment ,to evaluate the current ecological carrying capacity of the northwest of Guangxi province and to predict the trend of resources carrying capacity and the carrying pressure of ecosystem system in 2000-2010 years under the different increasing projects of life consume. The author confines himself to the studies of the agricultural ecosystem of the karst region in northwest of Guangxi province because of the limits in data and techniques.The author writes the paper to suggest the government for setting up the karst regional ecosystem environmental protection measure, proceeding the ecosystem environment immigrate, adjusting agriculture industrial structure, promoting the karst regional ecosystem environmental economic development, and changing the poverty actuality, realizing the karst regional sustainable development.The research evaluates the present carrying capacity of ecosystem of the karst region in northwest of Guangxi province in view of ecosystem flexibility index number, resources carrying capacity and carrying pressure. Research result indicates that there is low ecological carrying capacity and low index ecosystem flexibility and the ability of ecosystemsystem to regulate and to anti- interference by itself is not high in the karst region in northwest of Guangxi province. As a whole, resources carrying capacity is not low and carrying pressure is not very high, but the differences between the internal regions are rather obvious. For example, the resources and the population are not equally distributed, and it has resulted in the supply's strain of partial region resources. Particularly, the food production is in serious lack; there has been an overloaded population pressure; the ecosystem system is seriously overload in the karst region in northwest of Guangxi province.This thesis makes use of the SD model to simulate and predict trend of resources carrying capacity and carrying pressure of ecosystem in the karst region in northwest of Guangxi province in the years from 2000 to 2010 with the different increasing projects of life consume under the conditions of keeping the current policy and the current increasing speed of population, funds and techniques. The result of prediction indicates that: The trend of resources carrying capacity and resource pressure can develop healthily only when residents consuming keeps present level of dressing warmly and earning their fills; Resources carrying capacity is increasing but resource pressure becomes tenser if the level of resident consuming rises with the speed of the primary well-to-do kind; Resources carrying capacity is decreasing and resource pressure becomes tenser if level of resident consumer rises with the speed of the comparatively well-off and the wealthy kinds; The farmland resources reduce more quickly and the food supply is still strain; differences within the region have no present new look and partial region resources car...