Spatial-temporal Process Evaluation And Analysis Of Resources Environmental Carrying Capacity In The Headwater Region Of Northwest Sichuan

This project chooses the headwater region in northwest Sichuan province as the study area,where fragile alpine rangeland ecosystem exists with crucial ecology functions since it locates on the transition zone between Hengduan Mountains and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.This project applies remote sensing techniques,geographic information system and field survey approaches to obtain data and analyze information.Based on models and algorithms such as Principal Component Analysis,Structural Equation Model(SEM),this project conducts quantitative research on spatial-temporal process mechanism of resources environmental carrying capacity in rangeland area,setting up process assessment and evaluation models for resources environmental carrying capacity,acquiring the spatial-temporal change regulation of resources environmental carrying capacity in rangeland area,and providing theory support for rangeland sustainable development based upon appropriate regional resources environmental carrying capacity.The results of this paper are as follows.(1)Constructs the evaluation index system of resources and environment carrying capacity of the source in the Headwater Region of Northwest Sichuan.Based on the factor analysis of structural equation model,the index of the study area is screened,and the evaluation index system of resource and environment carrying capacity in the study area is improved step by step in the revision of structural equation model.The evaluation index system of resource and environment carrying capacity in the study area includes six latent variable: climatic factors,geological environment,natural resources,topography,economy and society,they include 17 indicators,such as elevation,NDVI,precipitation and so on.(2)The evaluation model of resource and environment carrying capacity of the study area is constructed.Based on the principal component analysis method,the comprehensive factors of the natural impact of the study area and the comprehensive factors of man-made influence were obtained.The evaluation model of resource and environment carrying capacity was established according to the structural equation model.In the process of model implementation,sptial data module,superposition analysis module using ARCGIS software;reliability analysis,factor analysis and other functions using SPSS 22.0 software;using LISREL 8.8 software to achieve the construction of Structural Equation Model,and so on.The use of these software research to form a study area of resources and environment carrying capacity model to achieve the technical system.(3)The spatial and temporal process of resources and environmental carrying capacity was evaluated and analyzed.The spatial and temporal processes of resource and environment carrying capacity of the study area were evaluated and analyzed by the evaluation of the resources and environment carrying capacity of the study area and the influencing factors.The natural influencing factors are the determinants of the carrying capacity of resources and environment in the study area.Human factors are the important factors influencing the change of the carrying capacity of resources and environment in the study area.From 2000 to 2014,the carrying capacity of resources and environment in the study area has greatly improved,and the natural resources have the greatest impact on the carrying capacity of resources and environment in the study area.The change of resources and environment carrying capacity in the study area is mainly affected by the increase of NDVI,the increase of precipitation and the increase of temperature and the rapid increase of the tertiary industry output value and proportion.The influence of the spatial distribution of resources and environment carrying capacity in the study area is mainly due to the influence of topography,geological environment and natural resources.The spatial variation shows that the bearing capacity is weak,and the distribution of the larger area in the weaker region becomes a small area aggregation distribution,and the distribution of small area aggregates becomes sporadic distribution and sporadic distribution disappears.