The Disquisition About Forecast And Countermeasure Of The Discharge Of Domestic Sewage From Chinese Cities At 2020

In the disquisition, the writer forecasts the amount of domesticsewage discharge in Chinese cities at 2020 by integrating systemsanalysis and mode-forecast methods, using the numbers of domesticwater and domestic sewage in Chinese cities from 1985 to 2003,andbring forward the settling method of circular and economical project andthe countermeasures, for example by building the account of using waterresource and bringing the Green GDP Index into national economiccalculating system. The circular and economical project is to increase the rate ofrecycling the domestic sewage in cities extremely and change sewageinto resource. It will improve water environment of cities and increasewater resources and promote the sustainable development of economyand society and environment. The basic forecasting model is as follow: A(t)=A0 *(1+α)tA0: the initial valuet :the time variableα: the average increasing rate Warning estimate of domestic sewage in Chinese cities Unit (hundred million ton) Date 2005 2010 2015 2020 The discharge of domestic sewage from 252.7 295.1 344.6 402.4 Chinese cities —64—吉林大学硕士研究生毕业论文 中国 2020 年城市生活污水排放量预测和对策研究 In fact, the average increasing rate is not changeless, but changes astime changes. So in rolling forecast the writer change the model asfollow: A(t)=A0(t-1)[1+α(t)] Rolling estimate of domestic sewage in Chinese cities Unit (hundred million ton) Date 2005 2010 2015 2020 The discharge of domestic sewage 252.7 288.7 321.9 355.4 The target in the forecast is to increase the rate of recyclingdomestic sewage in Chinese cities to 55%in 2020,on the base of rollingestimate and Supposing the recycling rate increase of 2.9 percent everyyear, the writer forecast the amount of domestic sewage discharged inChinese cities deal with the economical and circular project. The economical and circular project of domestic sewage discharge from Chinese city Unit (hundred million ton) 2005 2010 2015 2020 The estimate sewage discharge 252.7 288.7 321.9 355.4 Recycling rate % 11.43% 25.93% 40.43% 54.93% Recycling amount 15.5 61.4 116.7 181.8 Discharged sewage amount 237.2 227.3 205.2 173.5 On the analysis of warning estimate, rolling estimate,, economicaland circular project estimate the writer make the conclusion as followingtable. —65—吉林大学硕士研究生毕业论文 中国 2020 年城市生活污水排放量预测和对策研究 The estimate amount of domestic sewage discharge in Chinese cities from 2005 to 2020 Unit (hundred million ton) 2005 2010 2015 2020 Warning estimate 252.7 295.1 344.6 402.4 Rolling estimate 252.7 288.7 321.9 355.4 Economical and circular project 237.2 227.3 205.2 173.5 The data of Circular and economical project indicate that the waterquality in Chinese cities is improving year-by-year from 2005. It isconsistent with the development goals of water quality improvementplan of our country. So in the article the writer recommends the Rollingestimate result of Circular and economical project. According to theaverage water consumption per people forecast the domestic sewagedischarge of Chinese cities in 2020. In the article the writer estimate thepopulation in Chinese cities from 2005 to 2020. The estimate formula is: A(t)= A0...