Study Of Coal Mine Safety Assessment And Accident Forecasting Method

This paper applied safety system engineering theory for coal mine safety assessmentand accident forecasting. Studying coal mine safety assessment and accident forecastinghas important academic and actual meaning.Through analyzing all the factor of conduction, such as man, equipment, technologyand environment of Kai Luan Group, keeping to comparative, scientific, applicability andindex quantify fundamental, this paper established a kind of index system and a modelabout coal mine safety assessment. Using 4 kinds 20 factors as factors that affect coal minesafety, this paper ascertained every weight with AHP and educed result through integratedsafety assessment.Based on the studying of accident and according to the accident datum from 1991 to2003 of Kai Luan Group, using Access2000 this paper set up accident database. Moreoverusing regression forecasting, time series forecasting and grey forecasting ways this paperrealized accident trend forecasting.Using VB6.0, I developed the software of coal mine safety assessment and forecastingsystem. Applying this software system people can analyze, forecast and assess coal minefair , thereby people can realize assistant decision-making for coal mine safetymanagement .