| In recent years, China’s production safety accidents is declining, production safety situation is getting better, but the total number of coal mine accidents is still large, from the lateral view, the security level of production in China lags far behind developed countries. In this paper, I analyzed safety situation in each big coal mine production countries, found that there are large gap between China and these countries. According to the latest statistics from Bureau of Energy show that China’s coal output was3.24billion tons in2010, accounting for about45percent of the world’s raw coal output, but the number of deaths caused by the coal mine accidents in China accounts for about70percent of the total number of deaths caused by the world of coal mine accidents. Therefore, to enhance the security level of production in China’s coal industry is imperative. Statistical analysis of coal mine production safety accidents, scientific and objective evaluation of the status and characteristics of coal mine accidents in China, can make the country functional departments and enterprises to be more complete master safety production situation, based on the actual can help to promote China’s coal mine safety production and accident prevention work smoothly; Forecast the accident index and analyze the present situation about the accident and the future of the state estimates, can provide important scientific basis for make national macro decision and relevant departments of the state find the accident control key points, formulate find accident safety production management goals. Make the decision more reasonable, control of the key more specific, target is more feasible, helping to further assessment work of the coal mine safety system, guiding the enterprise internal for effective safety management and decision-making.The paper analyzed the coal mines accident in resent ten years according to the Coal mine accident material get from the accident inquiry system of the State Administration of Production Safety Supervision and Management. Use data statistics, chart analysis method, analyze including the year of accident happened, the area of accident happened, the economic types of the coal mine enterprise that accident happened help to understand the accident situation, features from all aspects and the coal mine accident happened rule, analysis the reason of these coal mine accidents, to work out the countermeasures of prevention and decrease of coal mine accident happened. Data statistic analysis results also provide data foundation for the accident forecast.In this paper, analysis and comparison the existing accident prediction theory and methods, combined with the complex factors, such as China’s coal mine accident statistics data quantity is little, discrete strong and nonlinear, etc, to choose gray GM (1,1) model that is more suitable for these data characteristics. Test the prediction model and obtained the result:use the posterior error test method to inspection the prediction model, test out level (good), but the use of residual test and relational degree test method get results is barely qualified. Use Markov forecast model which is suitable for prediction of volatility sequence to revise Grey GM (1,1) prediction model, set up Grey Markov model portfolios, test this model and get the inspection results all qualified, and precision greatly improved. Finally, the Grey Markov model and nonlinear regression prediction model combined into the best new combination of model, using the variance countdown method to determine the weight coefficient. The results show that the applicability of a single model is less than optimal combination model. According to China’s coal mine accident statistics data, using the best combination of our coal mine accident model to forecast the one million tons of mortality and the death toll, get specific predicted, so that we may see what the future of our coal mine safety situation visually.This paper combined the qualitative analysis and quantitative forecast method to use in accident prevention, provides support for national macro decision, combining with the actual situation, and in view of current coal mine production safety situation and future trends, put forward various measures which can improve China’s coal mine production safety situation. |
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