Research On Food Safety Prediction And Control Model

Food safety issue is a core topic all over the world. In the background that food safety problems happen from time to time in our country, research on this issue has an important meaning for the prediction and control of it. This paper starts from the fresh food supply chain of supermarket; introduces the principles and general measures of supermarket fresh food safety analysis; mainly discusses food microorganism risk analysis and its quantitative risk assessment methods; bring forwards fresh food microorganism number predictive model and shelf-life predictive model, and then brings in Marcelo method to simulate the models; finally, analyzes supermarket fresh food microorganism safety risk analysis and control methods based on the predictive result and brings forward its conception model. The aim of the paper is to offer a new thinking and method for the management and control of food safety. The main content includes three aspects as follows:1. Research on the fresh food supply chain of supermarket. Analyzes its features and the situation of evolvement; explains the meaning of conducting safety management in supermarket, and the role and function of fresh food processing-distribution center in the fresh food supply chain; designs the elementary supermarket fresh food safety management and control model which takes the fresh food processing-distribution center as the key and core control point.2. Introduces the risk analysis theory and supermarket food safety risk analysis method based on fresh food supply chain. Puts emphasis on the food microorganism quantitative risk assessment methods; analyzes the theory and use of the representative probability- Stat. model-Bayesian Networks model and the three model levels of the representative growth mechanism model-predictive microbiology; finally discusses the role of predictive microbiology model in the microorganism risk assessment and control of food safety.3. Brings forward the fresh food shelf-life predictive model and microorganism number predictive model based on predictive microbiology and the influence of different stages of the supermarket fresh food supply chain. In addition, in order to take the uncertainty factors into account, this paper brings in Marcelo method to...