The Design Of Dynamic Ecological Footprint Model And The Application To The Regional Development

The ecological footprint theory (EF theory) which is popular and abroad is applied to study the regional sustainable situation from the point of view as the using of natural resource, the consumption of energy and the emission of castoff. The ecological footprint theory can indicate the status of the ecological footprint and the ecological capacity.The ecological footprint analysis method is a method of static indicator at present. It assumes that population, technology and consumption is not changeless when the ecological footprint is calculated. Accordingly, the ecological footprint indicator can not reflect the trends of the future durative. So the thesis brings forward dynamic ecological footprint model, and designs its computer methods which can amend the static limitation.The thesis mainly contents:(1) Introduces the process and the background in which ecological footprint method were brought forward at home and abroad; Sums up the present research situations and practice progress; On the basis of the theories about ecological footprint method, ensures the significance of the thesis.(2) Owing to the static limitation of the traditional ecological footprint method above, we systematically develop a dynamic ecological footprint model. We integrated the social and economical impact, natural eco-environmental bio-capacity and scientific technological feedback capacity together to do the research more comprehensively. At the same time, it was necessary and important to carry out the correlation analysis between them.(3) On the basis of the dynamics ecological footprint model, Jingang Zone is taken as an example by adapting local productivity data. As Jingang Zone developed, the EF and EC (ecological capacity) will increase in some degree. The EF increases more rapidly than EC, because the area of Jingang Zone is limited and the consumption is increasing. As a result, the ecological deficit is increasing. In order to reduce the ecological deficit, the ecological capacity should be enhanced or the ecological footprint should be reduced.It's the first time to bring forward the dynamics ecological footprint model. It enhances the forecast ability of the ecological footprint method. The dynamics model can analysis, estimate and forecast the regional sustainable development. All the result will redound to...