Research On Sustainable Development Of Regions Based On The Ecological Footprint Model

The sustainable development of the quantitative evaluation is an important research field of sustainable development, the core content is determined whether the survival of mankind in the bearing capacity of the ecological system.Canadian professor Rees ecological economists and his doctoral Wackemagel since 1996 the ecological footprint model for the study of regional sustainable development provides a new perspective, a wide range of applications.This method will regional resources and energy into the material flow must provide all kinds of ecological productive land area (the ecological footprint)and the regional ecological productive can provide land area (ecological carrying capacity), and a comparison in the development of regional ecological carrying capacity is enough.Based on the ecological footprint of 1996-2006 in yulin city model, the development situation of empirical research, mainly through the calculation of the ecological footprint in yulin city, the development trend of ecological carrying capacity and the dynamic analysis, the results showed that:.1,Increasing the ecological footprint.1996-2006, the ecological footprint of per capita from 1.5265 ghm2 rise to 3.5842 ghm2, increased nearly 1.5 times, than the world level;2,The bearing capacity of ecological supply capacity per year, while weakened ecological deficit increased. By 1996 ecological carrying capacity from 1.5770 ghm2 reduced to 1.2189 ghm2 of 2006, ecological deficit in 1997,from 0.6716 ghm2 increased to 2006 2.5116 ghm2; increased 3.74 times;3,Through the ecological footprint per 10000 yuan GDP, the ecological footprint of diversity and development ability of dynamic analysis found that yulin 10000 yuan GDP footprint declines, from 1996 8.2494 ghm2, descend to 2006 2.8823 ghm2, but compared with western regions are higher than the national resources utilization efficiency, still belongs to the city. And development ability is as clear ascendant trend, the ecological footprint of big changes in diversity;4,Through the model of SPSS to per capita of ecological footprint and per capita GDP in the correlation and regression analysis, data obtained by 11 years, the ecological footprint and the GDP per capita of the correlation are coefficient R= 0.877, both are related to achieve significant level, in the regression analysis in curve fitting, Logarithmic logarithm function of fitting degree (determination coefficient R2=0.875), regression equations are obtained by 2020, predict the ecological footprint is 5.01 ghm2 in yulin city.5,In the establishment of regional sustainable development evaluation index system for evaluating the ability of sustainable development in yulin city, the results show that yulin in unsustainable development condition, especially the resources and environment subsystem in the evaluation of interval overall level is not high, is Located in the sustainable development of the lower level. social and economic development, population sustainability subsystem is increasing and it also reflects the rapid economic growth in yulin city, and the improvement of people's living standard is due to excessive consumption environment and development as price. Finally, this paper summarized analysis of yulin, how to improve the ecological deficit, realizing the sustainable development of ecological carrying capacity, and puts forward countermeasures and Suggestions, and papers in order to deepen the existing problems and further research contents were discussed.