Study On Marsh Wetland Ecological Carring Capacity And Controlling Pattern Of The Sustainable Development On Sanjiang Plain

Sanjiang Plain is a lowland plain formed by the flow concentration alluvium of Heilongjiang,Songhua River and the Wusuli River, it is the centralism distributing wetlands and the largest areawetlands region in our country and even in the world, which has the important position in the Asianand even in the whole world. From 20th century 50's, Sanjiang Plain has experienced fourlarge-scale developments. At present the grain total output amounts to more than 7 billionkilograms every year, it becomes an important commodity grain base of our country. At the sametime, because excess reclamation and drying the bog, the original ecological environment ofSanjiang Plain is gradually worse, wetlands area reduced 60％, many kinds of animals disappeared,land desertificated, water and soil lost seriously and frequent drought and water logging disaster,caused the benefit of planting crops reduced. In January, 2001, Sanjiang natural protection area islisted into "International Important Wetland Name list", therefore this fresh water .wetland hascaused the domestic and foreign experts and scholar's more attention. The local governmentstopped continuing reclaiming wastelands from 2001. This change with the historical significancesymbolized that the Heilongjiang reclamation area finished the history of depending on reclaimingwasteland to increase the grain output, thus, it strides forward into the new stage of economic,environment and ecology sustainable development. This has profound influence on improvingecological environment and protecting the important wetlands which is internationally well-known.Therefore, study on carrying capacity of wetlands ecosystem ecosystem scientifically, andmodeling research on its water and soil resources system, and make the corresponding sustainableregulation pattern, this will become the chief research subject.The former carrying capacity research basically is the single essential factor researchseparated from the overall effect of ecosystem, carries on the analysis and research to thepopulation carrying capacity aspect by stressing on the existing overall quantity of single itemresources (land resource, water resources, biological resources), neglected the ecosystem overalleffect to the system supporting capacity, thus made the ecosystem overloaded, many local ecologyworsened all were made under the ecosystem overloaded. So this study bases on Sanjiang Plainwetland, takes the sustainable development as the goal, carries on the systematic analysis to thewetlands water and soil resources, establishes the corresponding mathematical model, provides thescientific basis for its next long-term sustainable use from the angle of wetlands water resources,the land resource and the water environment etc. This project research as studies the platform takethe entire Sanjiang Plain, the key choice construct~ three rivers sub-bureaus to study the region forthe model. Utilized the many kinds of mathematical model use and the method, the system have studied the following several aspects content:1. Study on wetlands Ecological Carrying Capacity in Sanjiang Plain(1) Combining the actual situation of Sanjiang Plain wetlands, analyze the question which thepresent wetlands faces basing on the elaboration of wetland ecosystem function and benefit. Basedon the ecology carrying capacity viewpoint, elaborate the wetlands ecological carrying capacitydefinition, character and the sustainable bearing principle of wetlands ecology as well as thewetlands ecological carrying capacity adjustable way.(2) Using the grade evaluation method, carry on the synthesis evaluation to ecologicalcarrying capacity of Sanjiang Plain wetlands. Three levels of evaluation index system wereestablished. The first evaluation level(an ecology elasticity evaluation), select 6 factors for thecriterion level, select 19 evaluation indexes for the target level. The second evaluationlevel(resources and environment bearing capacity evaluation), select 10 factors for the criterionlevel, select 23 evaluation targets for the target level. The third evaluation level(carrying-pressingevaluation), select two main factors for the criterion level, select 7 evaluation indexes for the targetlevel. Divide Sanjiang Plain into six areas, named Luobei area, Tongfu area, Naoli River area,Anbang river area, Woken River area and Muling River area. Use the level analysis technologybased on the acceleration genetic algorithm, separately carry on the single item evaluation and thetotal evaluation. The evaluation results indicated that, the majority ecosystem of entire SanjiangPlain is in steady, comparatively higher load, middle low pressure region, that indicated SanjiangPlain original ecological carrying capacity quite is higher, the population stress is not heavy.(3) Pulse Coupled Neural Network (PCNN), called as the third generation of neural network,with the basic characteristics of coupling and pulse output, is widely implemented on imageprocessing and obtained the certain result. In this paper, the PCNN model is improved. After thecombination of PCNN and multi-objective and fuzzy pattern identified model, the new ecologicalcarrying capacity evaluation model is put forward based on fuzzy PCNN. And 13 evaluationindexes were adopted in ecological carrying capacity evaluation criterion and data adjusted throughPCNN model of 6 geography zonings in Sanjiang Plain to calculate their degrees of membershiprelatively. At last, integrative evaluation results of ecological carrying capacity for every geographyzoning were obtained.(4)The ecoregion of wetland was be a studying object as integrated system. The impormentfactor was synthetically considered on the regional economic, society, resources and ecologicalenvironment etc. The seven indexes was selected, include per capita GDP, per capita living space,per capita domestic water, per capita public green area, per capita road area, the students ofsecondary vocational school, the hospital beds. The five cities was be the studying object, includethe city of Jiamusi, Shuangyashan, Qitaihe, Jixi and Hegang, the meta-analysis model system wasestablished about population carrying capacity of the regional sustainable development. Base on themodel, referencing "three-run on foot"development strategy and the 11th Five-Year Plan forNational Economic and Social Development of the People's Republic(2006～2010years),combined with the actual situation of the Sanjiang region, to forecast the index total amount of theregional sustainable development, include the economical development level, the society development level, the environment level and the situation of resource utilization. Two standards ofcarring capacity quality that was the relatively comfortable life level the wealthy level andhomologous index threshold value, was studied out elementarily, and the population carryingcapacity was calculated by the principal components analysis method. That provided thesupport ofthe policy decision for regional sustainable development.2. The analysis and evaluation on groundwater resources system of wetlands in Sanjiang PlainWe used GIS technology and ArcGIS software to model research, also chose Chuangye farm,Honghe farm, Hongwei farm and Qianjin farm in the northeast of Sanjiang Plain as evaluatepurposes. At first, through ArcGIS software setting up rainfall equivalence chart layer, contourchart layer, water system chart layer, trench system chart layer and administration region chartlayer etc, and built GIS data base about rainfall of four farms and groundwater dynamic trend, etc.Using Kring module and Arcscene tool in ArcGIS software to deal with and analyze datum andpictures, and drawing landform and 3D water system view on the four farms. In addition, theauthor presents realized 3D visualization of groundwater aquiclude in combination with dynamicbalanced method and evaluates the spatial distribution of groundwater resource and the dynamicvariation of groundwater level in the Sanjiang Plain. The results showed that the groundwater levelwas continuously descending, the maximal descent of groundwater level was 5.8m and the lossadded up to 6.89×10~8 m~3 in this region since 1997 owning groundwater surveying datum. Therelevant measures should be taken to mitigate the pressure of groundwater in the region for thefuture.3. Analyze the hydrographic and water resources environment changes of marsh wetland inthe Sanjiang PlainThrough the study on marsh wetlands with their own hydrographic characteristics and waterbalance equation in typical wetland, the affecting factors (climate change, runoff region change, theimpact of marsh wetland due to changing the utilization way of land, the impact from hydraulicengineering)on the changes of marsh wetland are analyzed in the Sanjiang Plain. Also ecologicaleffect toward the change of hydrology and water resources on wetlands is analyzed. The authorputs forward that human activities disturbance has lead to the hydrographic and water resourcesenvironment changes directly, continuing reduction in area and loss in ecological function ofwetlands.