The Research On Economic Evaluation And Risk Analysis Of Ferro-Alloys Item And The Relevant Software Developed

In the economic evaluation and risk analysis of ferroalloy item, some problems has been existed at the present time, for example the evaluation process is ruleless and cursory, the manual work is also used in evaluation, the risk analysis is not well used done, and there is not a professional software for the economic evaluation of ferroalloy item.this paper exploits a software system for evaluation and analysis.This paper gives out the generic method and basis principle of the ferroalloy item techno-economy evaluation, and describes the calculating methods for the time value of capital, the depreciation of fixed assets and the text rate. It also introduces the calculating process, the basic data, the primary parameters, the basic report forms and the referential criterion of the item evaluation. And it sets forth the calculating methods for every report forms, parameters and reference standard for the economic evaluation of ferroalloy item .The sensitive factors are found out by analyzing the sale earning, running expenses and investment for capital asserts. This paper introduces the primary content of risk analysis and brings forward the fundamentality of the ferroalloy item risk analysis. It applies AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process) to make the risk analysis. And it also gives out the elements, expression and calculating process of risk analysis. The risk analysis model of ferroalloy item is established. It makes the risk analysis from production, policy and management. The risk is measured off from different administrative levels and evaluated by AHP. The main risk factors and their influence on total risk are found out by researching the calculating results. The item risk can be estimated by changing the illegible and impalpable risks into some foreseeable factors such as raw and processed materials' supply and demand and processed materials and the price fluctuation of the production.In the calculating process of risk grades, the risk rate is estimated by the expert from the different parts of each level. The factors of the same level can be compared all together or compared each other. The risk grades are estimated by using three methods which are estimation matrix, geometry average or criterion row. The account method is confirmed by the mode of the factor compared. It describes aforementioned methods' calculating process, expressions and characteristic. The risk grade is estimated from the final level, and it is researched the influence degree in turn. The course is more logic and laconic and avoids the checking computations. The result is more rational and scientific. The label of the risk order is very easy.The software for the economic evaluation of ferroalloy item is developed by using powerbuilder, which is a programming tool. And it can be used into the decision-making, feasibility studying and ferroalloys item economic evaluating. The software is useful. The report forms can be showed on the computer's screen directly. It can make much convenience for adjusting the data. The system which is used for the ferroalloy items' decision-making and evaluating is developed by making program. It can be used for the economic evaluation and risk analysis of ferroalloy item. And the operation is easy. The result is also scientific and exact. The system has been applied in project, and it has made great benefit to the corporations and factories.