The Forecast And Evaluation Study Of Construction Accidents

In recent years, although Chinese government attached great importance to safety management and has introduced a series of safety laws and regulations what have improved the building safety situation. But the total amount of accidents and the mortality rate per 10 billion yuan of the total production value are very grim when compared to developed countries. There are two main reasons. One reason is that the relevant departments don't have effective supervisory systems for the construction safety. The other reason is that construction enterprises don't only input enough investment in the construction safety, but also are lack of reasonable evaluation methods to evaluate the construction safety management.By inverstigating the construction safety management in China deeply, in the view of safety systems engineering, this paper studied several major safety issues in the construction by using a method which combined qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis.Safety focuses on the prevention work, this article forecasted the trend of the construction accidents reasonably and effectively. On the base of the existing research on the safety evaluation, a mathematical model of the scene construction safety evaluation and a mathematical model of the overall situation safety assessment about building enterprises have been established. These models can make quantitative assessment between in different construction enterprises or different sites of a construction enterprise. Rational safety investment is very important to reduce safety accidents in construction. From a safety point of economic laws, a safe input-output model for enterprise safety investments was been established to provide an important frame of reference for construction enterprises. Finally, a safety supervision game model was been established, in which there are two participants, one is the administrative departments of Construction supervision, the other is the construction enterprises.