Energy Use And CO₂ Emissions Empirical Analysis For Qinghai Province In Recent 15 Years

Energy consumption are the main source of carbon emissions,With the continuous development of the economy in Qinghai Province,the rapid growth of energy consumption as well as the coal-focused energy structure in the short term it is very difficult to change.Therefore,the carbon emissions increase inevitably.A decomposition model of carbon emissions per capita for Qinghai Province is set up by Logarithmic Mean Weight Divisia(LMD) method based on the identity of carbon emissions. The model is adopted to analyze the influence of energy structure,energy efficiency and economic development to carbon emissions per capita in Qinghai Province from 1990 to 2007.The results show that the contribution rate of economic development to carbon emissions per capita is exponential growth in Qinghai Province.However,energy efficiency and energy structure on the Qinghai inhibit the contribution of carbon emissions per capita is relatively low,Fundamentally there is no way on the contribution rate and economic growth mentioned in the same breath, indicating energy efficiency to curb the role of carbon emissions in China at reduced coal-foused energy structure although continuous improvement,but a fundamental change,energy efficiency and energy structure difficult to offset by the inhibitory effect of the economic development of Qinghai-driven growth in carbon emissions.Qinghai is a province rich in water resources,water resources and make full use of it is to improve the coal-dominated energy structure of the method,should be in the future rapid economic development of hydropower resources to play a key advantage and the development and utilization of new energy. In this paper,the gray prediction method,set up GM(1,1) model,the use of carbon emissions in Qinghai Province 1990-2007 data,the prediction 2008-2020,the analysis revealed that:from the long-term development trends,in Qinghai Province in particular industries because of the current are the structure of the heavy chemical industry in the national economy caused by sharp increase in energy intensity of GDP growth will jump with the structure of the stable and tends to slow.And with the industrial structure optimization and upgrading of industrial technology and the proportion of high value-added products and further enhance the stability of sustained downward trend.Carbon emissions in Qinghai Province in terms of the status quo,in a relatively stable period of growth of small, sparsely populated because of Qinghai Province,the economic development of small-scale,late start,well-developed than the eastern developed regions lagging behind for decades,so the economic development of Qinghai Province a large space,such as to achieve modernization,the necessary energy consumption and CO₂ emissions growth are obvious,but should not suffer from the expense of the environment a common problem.Low-carbon economy should draw on the fruits of development strategy,in the process of modernization can go more to save energy and reduce CO₂ emissions from the road,to avoid unnecessary waste and losses.Carbon emissions over the past 12 years the energy intensity of GDP in Qinghai Province is facing an upward trend,with the country's provinces in GDP growth rate of energy intensity and extent of comparison,are the most slow and mild growth.