The Study On Evaluation And Pre-warning Of Regional Ecological Security

Humans currently face serious ecological challenges at global and local scales,and ecological security has become equally important with military security,economic security, political security and national security,etc.The degeneration of ecosystem is hard to identify. In order to distinguish and prevent degeneration of ecosystem in advance,it is very important to establish an operational region ecological security appraisal and early-warning method system.This article reviewed the development of ecological security appraisal and the early warning research both at home and abroad;analyzed and compared the method of ecological security assessment,established ecological security evaluating indicator system based on footprint theory,introduced gray predicted model to establish ecological security evaluation and early warning system.After that,this article took Dalian as the object of study,first conducted the ecological security evaluation through the historical data,then conducted the early warning research through the gray predicted model to next 15 years' ecological security condition of Dalian.The results show that ecological deficit index increases from 3.78 hm~2 in the year 2007 to 1.68 hm~2 in the year 1996.The ecological tension index increased from 1.91 in 1996 to 2.59 in 2007.The ecological security index changes between -0.91 to -1.58 and will be -1.60,-1.66 and -1.93 in 2012,2017 and 2022.That means that the ecological security condition of Dalian has been at risk and declining in recent years.Constructive advice on improving Dalian ecological security condition was given in the end.