Primary Calculation Research On Carbon Dioxide Emissions Benchmark Of Chongqing

With the rapid development of industrialization, society and economy, more and more anthropogenic greenhouse gases, mainly carbon dioxide, have been emitted into atmosphere that enhance the greenhouse effect and trigger a series of climatic issues on a global scale, which becomes more and more serious in recent years; therefore, The studies of "facing climate change, slowing down growth of carbon dioxide emissions growth" are admit of no delay.Taking 2007 as benchmark year, this research studied status of carbon dioxide emission of Chongqing city, estimated the benchmark of-anthropogenic carbon dioxide emission in Chongqing, further analyzed emission change along time sequence, studied the contribution of different drivers to carbon dioxide emission and pre-estimated emission tendency of carbon dioxide due to energy consuming activities in future. With expectation, this research on the scientific investigation side can provide scientific investigation foundation for in-depth analyzing carbon dioxide emission and its mutation characteristics in future, exploring appropriate emission factors for local area and more accurately evaluating the status of carbon dioxide emission; on the practical side, can provide important proofs for decision makers to propose and establish countermeasures of controlling carbon dioxide emission. The main conclusions of this research are as follows:The evaluation methods for carbon dioxide emission and carbon sink of forest in《2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories》were applied as basic approach for estimating carbon dioxide emissions of Chongqing city. According to the views of compiling inventory of greenhouse gas emissions of China, combining with the actual situation of Chongqing, in the benchmark year,135.536 million tons per year carbon dioxide emissions of Chongqing was estimated.. In which:111.43 million tons (82.2 percent of total release)emissions was due to by energy consuming t,24.106 million tons (17.8 percent of total release) was due to industrial processes. As a carbon sink, forest absorbed carbon dioxide 27 million tons. Therefore, the net carbon dioxide emissions were 108.536 million tons after subtracting carbon sink of forest. On the view of total emissions, carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion of Chongqing was about 1.86 percent of the total countrywide emission in 2007, it is equivalent to the percentage of the GDP of Chongqing to that of the whole country. On the view of emission levels per capita, comparing carbon dioxide emission from fossil fuel combustion of Chongqing with that of the world average, national average and several different cities, the carbon dioxide emissions per capita of Chongqing were relatively small in the world, and below the national average of China in 2007. On the view of carbon emission intensity, Chongqing was 2.70 tons per unit of GDP which exceeded national average of China in 2007; the carbon dioxide intensity was much higher than it in developed urban areas in the world.According to the analysis on carbon dioxide emission change due to energy use with LMDI method, the carbon dioxide emission intensity was influenced both by the intensity and the structure of energy consumption in Chongqing city. Energy intensity was the key factor of the change of carbon dioxide intensity. There is no significant relationship between the change of carbon dioxide intensity and energy structure during 1997 to 2007. The carbon dioxide emission due to energy use in Chongqing was influenced by the drive factors such as permanent resident population, per capita GDP, the intensity and the structure of energy. Per capita GDP had the greatest contribution to the increase of carbon dioxide emissions, thus was the key driver for it. The reduction of energy intensity controlled and relieved the increase of carbon dioxide emissions to a certain degree during 1997 to 2007.Kaya equation was applied to fit driving factors of carbon dioxide emissions. Combining with the actual situation in Chongqing, the carbon dioxide emission due to Chongqing municipal energy consumption was predicted according to the baseline scenario mode and reference scenario mode respectively. For the reference scenario mode, in 2020, emissions of carbon dioxide due to Chongqing energy consumption activities will reduced 23.8% comparing to that of the baseline mode; carbon dioxide emissions per unit GDP will reduce from 2.15 tons per million to 1.64 tons, which is 23.7% lower than that of the baseline scenario. After the implementation of policies and regulations for relieving carbon dioxide emissions, the adjustments of Chongqing economic growth patterns will be in favor of controlling carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions per unit GDP will be reduced; and the ratio of total energy demand to the total carbon dioxide emission will decrease significantly comparing to that of the baseline scenario.Basing on the investigations of the present situation of Chongqing City, policies and researches which are about the quantitative carbon dioxide emissions, we proposed short term approaches for carbon dioxide emissions control which Include the prior development of clean energy, adjusting the energy supply structure; for upgrading the economic structure, developing low-carbon economy; the implementation of energy saving, promoting low-carbon society; with the progresses of technology, promoting the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions according to the law of social market; strengthening international exchanges communications and actively cooperating for low-carbon technologies.