Research On Distribution Of Earthquake Death Toll And Approach To Rapid Estimation After An Earthquake

Destructive earthquake has brought about numerous disasters to the natural world and human society, in which the loss of casualties can not be measured in economic criteria. Casualties caused by the earthquake in the earthquake disaster are the most prominent social events, this article will center on the research of the human casualties caused by the earthquake. In fact, through studying on the characteristics and the distribution of the earthquake casualties in the earthquake-stricken area we could provide the criteria of how to organize the rescuing force, offer the rescuing supplies and reduce the secondary deaths after the earthquake scientifically.Based on the detailed data about the death toll caused by Wenchuan Earthquake in 2008, we found that the death toll is subjected to a distribution formula, which would reveal the relationship between the death toll and the impacting factors (i.e. the earthquake magnitude, the earthquake intensity and the population density of the earthquake-stricken area). Through analyzing the characteristics of distribution we could find a relationship between the death toll and the earthquake magnitude, the earthquake intensity and the population density of the earthquake-stricken area. It can be deployed for rescue forces, the configuration of relief supplies, earthquake relief command and reference and a basis for decision-making.Through studying the earthquakes in mainland China that caused human deaths in the past 50 years (1959-2008) and studying the interrelation of the earthquake magnitude, the death toll and the population density in the areas around the epicenter, we could find a relationship between them, on the basis of which the preliminary estimation of the death toll and hazard level caused by the disaster in the area around the epicenter could be carried out properly. The relationship provides the basis for further assessment of the dynamics and to judge trends in the number of deaths.Based on the study of the 26 earthquakes taking place home and abroad in recent years and the reported number of deaths caused by the disaster, it was found that there is a relationship between the factual death toll and the reported number of deaths, which were both increasing or reducing with the time going on. The analysis showed that there is some simple and clear physical meaning hidden. Therefore according to after the earthquake of 1 -2 days the reported number of deaths published in the media after the earthquake, we could provide the criteria of organizing the rescuing, offer the divided stage of emergency rescue, rescuing supplies and reduce the secondary deaths after the earthquake properly.The innovation of this study: Having established a method for the initial assessment and dynamic assessment of the number of deaths caused by the earthquake, which would provide a new way to evaluate the casualties; Having proposed two parameters that is responding ability and rescuing capabilities to describe the process of rescuing in the disaster, having proposed a method of dividing the rescuing stages according to the number of deaths reported.