A Study On Emissions Trading Based On Multi-Agent Systems

Along with the global environmental problems, people become increasingly aware of environmental protection. Thus, the emissions trading, a system based on market, is born as required. The emissions trading system not only offers a flexible way to reach to the emission limit but also eases the sharp contradictions between economic growth and environmental protection. The primary type of emission trading is "point sources-to-point sources"; however, based on the present condition of environmental contamination, such primary type cannot further improve the environmental quality. Although with a lot of uncertainties, the emission trading between point sources and non-point sources still attracts widespread attention due to its tremendous potential for cost saving.This thesis simulates the emissions trading system by the modeling approach based on multi-agent systems. What makes such approach so different from the general mathematical and simulation models? It can provide better explanation for the nature by observing the interaction of factors in the system from "bottom-up" and researching the evolutionary process of entire emergence phenomenon.Based on the comprehensive research on the previous work, a new system that offers small increase of the required decrement at the end of each trading circle and a new way to simulate the emissions trading system by adding the non-point sources, sources that varies greatly in marginal cost factor with the point sources, in the modeling, are primarily studied in the thesis. Furthermore, this model better simulates the real situation of the emissions trading market for considering the cost saving influence by the uncertainties of the non-point sources. After deep analysis of the simulation experimental results, the present thesis believes that the emissions trading systems will be cost effective only when non-point sources were added to the system, and when the uncertainties of the monitoring of NPS and the risk attitude factor in the trading between PS and NPS were small. If so, the environmental quality in the area will gradually improve with the continuous rise of the decrement of both the non-point sources pollution and gross contamination.