Application Research Of Security Risk Evaluation About Earth-rock Dams

Reservoir dam with water storage,flood control irrigation and other functions,but,at the same time once the dam broke,its harm is enormous.Due to the superiority of earth-rock dam,who has important position in the construction of dams in China and even the world.Due to external conditions change and dam structure design defects and other reasons,increasingly prominent earth-rock dam safety issues can't be ignored.The study of the safety risk assessment of earth-rock dams is useful to evaluate the safety status of earth-rock dams and provide guidance for the safety management of dams,and ensure the safe operation of earth-rock dams and ensure the safety of people's lives and property.This paper analyzed the safety management methods of dams both at home and abroad in detail,and summed up the characteristics of China's dam break,and analyzed the risk mechanism of the existence of earth-rock dam,and identified the influencing factors of the aging earth-rock dams.Finally,the safety evaluation model of earth-rock dam is established and the risk assessment is carried out according to the safety evaluation index system of earth-rock dam.The limited data are fuzzy and random in the evaluation of security risk of earth-rock dams,and it is difficult to obtain quantitative evaluation results from such data.The existing theoretical methods often neglect the uncertainty of the evaluation process.each factor has its own weight and its own risk degree because of the factors have different degrees of influence on the evaluation object.The traditional analytic hierarchy process can characterize the influence factor but can't correctly express the ambiguity and randomness of judgment and the cloud model can make up for this deficiency.Cloud model is applied to the security evaluation of earth-rock dam,and established the evaluation model of earth-rock dam based on AHP-cloud model.It is impossible to reinforce all the dangerous dams at the same time because of the large number of earth-rock dams with aging disease in China.It is necessary to make reasonable sort according to the degree of danger and importance.The reservoir of closely related flood control and security should be given priority to reinforcement,but there is no conclusion about scientific sort.The Sorting system is established based on existing research foundation in paper,and 15 reservoir security is calculated and proved to be feasible and effective according to Principal Component Analysis.Finally,reliable basis of reinforcement decision is provided according to the calculation and sorting results of dangerous reservoir.