Research Of Grey Fuzzy Evaluation Method For Risk Analysis Of Earth-rock Dam

The earth-rock dam is the most widely used and fastest-growing dam, however,due to various reasons, there are serious security risks in many of earth-rock damwhich was constructed in early times. Risk analysis can effectively identify the majorrisk factors affecting the safety of earth-rock dam and make reasonable assessment tothe risk of earth dam, then guide the reconstruction and expansion of dilapidatedreservoirs, and it has a good practical significance.In the view of the complexity and uncertainty problem of risk analysis ofearth-rock dam, a new method named grey fuzzy comprehensive evaluation modelbased on improved analytic network process was proposed combining theories ofanalytic network process and grey fuzzy set, and was applied to practical engineeringverifying the feasibility of the model. The main contents are as follows:(1)Taking into account the differences between large-medium and smallreservoirs and the differences in many aspects such as culture, economy, populationdensity between the East and West, dam risk criteria are respectively establishedwhich are suitable for large-medium and small reservoir in the East and West.(2)Based on the analytic hierarchy process, the structure principles of analyticnetwork process and calculation method of relative limit order vector are detaillydescribed. Meanwhile, the traditional network analysis is improved by introducingtriangle fuzzy exponential scale which are defined based on the perspective of scaleand judgment matrix.(3)Anew method named grey fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model based onimproved analytic network process was proposed combining theories of analyticnetwork process and grey fuzzy set. The evaluation model was used to risk analysisof earth-rock dam, constructing the risk analysis index system and network structureof earth-rock dam, developing the grading standards for each risk index, giving thecalculation methods and steps of the index weight, determining the membershipfunction for each index. (4) The risk comprehensive evaluation model of earth-rock dam was applied to areservoir dam. The results was consistent with the actual situation of the reservoir,which verified the feasibility of the model.