Dam Emergency Plan Technology Research Based On Risk Analysis

China is a country which has one of the largest number of reservoir in the world, building dams played a huge role for China’s social and economic development, however, with the fixed number of year for reservoir operation nowadays, a number of dams appeared different degrees of risk.the existence of danger dams threat to people’s life and property safety and restricts the local economic development. How to manage the dams based on the risk analysis become has one of the important tasks for our country reservoir management.The dam risk analysis based on the dam burst probability analysis and loss estimation, is a based on the minimum cost to obtain the maximum security technical means for the existing risk of dam to identify, estimate and evaluate, processing and decision. This paper analysis the reservoir dam break probability, calculation the dam failure flood risk evolution, and formulate the emergency plan, etc:(1) This paper statistics the China dam failure material, summarize and analysis the dam main failure mode, the possible paths and reason. According to the dam failure mode constructing event tree, combined with the expert experience method, estimate the dam-break probability.(2) Through choose the finite element software, combined with the spatial data processing software, This paper calculate the risk of dam failure flood evolution, and get the flood risk map information.(3) Through the dam risk analysis, combined with emergency treatment measures in the flood period, This paper formulate emergency plan based on the normal operation of the dam and the sudden situation.(4) Based on the above analysis. QiYi Dam at the check water conditions dyke breaches flood and flood evolution severity degree prediction using spatial data processing software, Breach software and two-dimensional implicit difference scheme finite element software, etc. and based on the failure flood risk map in the flood storage and related measures analysis, formulated emergency plan.Based on the dam risk analysis and emergency plan formulation. This paper research results provide a theoretical basis and analysis method for the valley flood control planning, flood dispatching, risk decision and safety management.