Comprehensive Index Assessment And Balance Index Forecasting Of Water Resources Carrying Capacity In Hubei Province

Since 2006, Hubei's economy has entered a phase of accelerated development leading to increase of water consumption in the national economy and domestic life. Besides, irrational water use structure, low efficiency of water use, and serious water shortage arising from temporal and spatial uneven distribution low water quality result in increasing conflicts between water resources system and socio-economic system. The research on the carrying capacity of water resources has become particularly urgent.Comprehensive index of water resources carrying capacity is a comprehensive indicator to reflect the state of water resources carrying capacity under the interaction of economic system, social system and ecological system. With comprehensive index of water resources carrying capacity, this paper examines dynamic evaluation to water resources carrying capacity of Hubei Province in recent six years. The purpose of this research is to analyze the present situation of water resources carrying capacity of Hubei Province and to explore mode of sustainable utilization of water resources in Hubei Province. After analysis and evaluation of water resources amount, water environment and status of water resources development and utilization, AHP and the weighted index method for water resources are employed to examine dynamic analysis of comprehensive index of water resources carrying capacity of Hubei Province in recent six years. Meanwhile, in this paper model of water resource balance index is applied to measure water resource balance index of recent seven years in Hubei, and it predicts the balance index of water resources carrying capacity in the next decade on the two types of programs.This study found that water resources capacity index peak in recent seven years in Hubei Province occurred in 2006, after 2007 it showed fluctuating growth trend. Further analysis found that the fluctuation was mainly due to fluctuations in water resource systems, and the production caused by increasing water. In calculation of water resource balance index of Hubei Province, firstly I forecasts water demand in Hubei Province in the next decade on the two types of programs. After the application of water resource balance index model, I began to analyze water resources carrying capacity in Hubei Province. Balance index of water resources carrying capacity had trough in 2006, which indicates that obvious contradiction between water supply and demand occurred in Hubei Province in 2006. And it also verified assessment result of the comprehensive index of water resources carrying capacity in 2006. When I analyze balance index of water resources carrying capacity in the next decade, these two kinds of prediction programs are different. Balance index of water resources carrying capacity in the program I has declined, and the main reason for this phenomenon is growing water demand in the programâ… . Whereas balance index in the programâ…¡showed a gradual growth trend and the reasons for this gradual growth trend are that production department for the programâ…¡is more efficient to use water, which results in decrease of water demand. This result showed that water use in the second program pattern is conducive for further improvements of sustainable carrying capacity of water resources in Hubei Province. Therefore, the production department of Hubei Province in the future economic development should choose Option II on the utilization of water resources. Based on the dynamic analysis of comprehensive index of water resources carrying capacity in Hubei Province in recent six years, on the purpose of suistaining and improving water resources carrying capacity in Hubei Province, this paper proposes to strengthen water conservancy facilities, improve water utilization, take measures to prevent water pollution, etc.