Evaluation Of Water Resources Carrying Capacity In Hubei Province

Basic nature resources are important to human exist and economy development, above all, water comes first. Making balance of qualified water environment through gaining enough water with high quality is a significant standard to judge the socially and economically developmental level. Accompanied with area economy dramatically expanded, the requirement of water both used domestically and industrially is higher and higher; therefore, the traditionally exploiting model of water being lavish, and simultaneously going with pollution restrict the socially economic development. Consequently water developmental strategy and the technical problems related to this strategy are now focused nowadays.The uneven spatial and temporal distribution of water resources, coupled with climate change, making the part-time when the concentration of precipitation, floods, however, is little precipitation, the localized drought and water shortage. From2010to June2011, the worst drought has appeared in Hubei Province of the50years, the lake has shrunk dramatically, three lakes and close to the lake dew disappears. The rainfall for the65counties at least the history of which, little rainfall in Wuhan City, get the lowest peak of16cities and83counties in the state a total of1870.6hectares of farmland affected by drought. The constraints on natural conditions, rapid growth of industrial and agricultural water pollution led to the water continued to increase. Water problems is the essence of human behavior than some of the natural water bearing limits, making the destruction of water supply cycle, significantly reducing available water resources. From the comprehensive sense of the carrying capacity of water resources is a necessary response to the current water problems means. Evaluation of water resources carrying capacity in Hubei Province, revealed water resources, regional economic, social, demographic, ecological relationship between the production and life of human development and utilization of limited water resources, recycling and the environment within the tolerance range. Through the evaluation process water resources and population, sustainable economic development relationship, find water and socio-demographic, economic, ecological and environmental level, the regional water resources development and utilization of performance, and thus the regulation of water resources in the region to develop an appropriate long-term strategic to achieve the sustainable development of regional water resources.This paper focuses on the research of water resource in Hubei Province, chooses evaluation method which is suitable for the present situation of water resource in Hubei Province, designs evaluation system. Basing on the resent different of Hubei water resource carry capacity, this assay offers advices in terms of sustainable development of Hubei water resource.The article has saliently6chapters: Chapter1, Exordium. It explicates the background of the thesis and the research orientation. On the premise of retrospective domestic research achievement, it summarizes both domestic and exotic references within a systematical method. There are a short introduction of the research, the research approach and the possible initiations.Chapter2, Conceptualize water resource carrying capacity and depict relevant infrastructural theories, which includes connotation of water resource carrying capacity, sustainable development theory, water resource-society-economy-biology hybrid theory, artificial-natural dichotomy theory. This chapter presents a conclusive evaluation of common-used approaches in analysis of merits and defects, and alters multi-layer fuzzy comprehensive discrimination model as the central research method of water resource carrying capacity in Hubei Province. Chapter3, Set up systematical index of water resource carrying capacity. This combines index culling and notion conceiving as principle to analyze influential causes to water resource carrying capacity. Bonded with Hubei’s current situation, the evaluation of water resource carrying capacity index is engaged in subordinate water resource system, social system, economic system and biological system that are composed of22single evaluating indexes within4fields. As in the procedure of setting up multi-layer evaluation systematical index, database is being converted and renewed and hence short-term prediction is fostered by exerting GM(1.1) Gray Mode. This forms anticipated index value respectively in2015.Chapter4, A Brief Introduction to multi-layer fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. Execute multi-layer fuzzy comprehensive discrimination model, calculate index values and sort them into categorized zones. By the benchmark of international and national standard criteria and research results from developed areas, the status of water resources carrying capacity can be distinguished into weak, relatively weak, modest, relatively strong and strong. This implements to simulate22single index value among5levels, which provides a fuzzy evaluation for water resource carrying capacity in Hubei。The analytic hierarchy process and entropy method are complied both subjectively and objectively, in order to ensure a weighted apportion in the index system.Chapter5, The core importance of the thesis. Processing the calculus mentioned in the last chapter, this chapter focuses on the analysis of water resource carrying capacity and its data approximation. The calculation contains the possible oscillation of water resource carrying capacity, in comparison among different cities in Hubei Province. The outcome turns out to be: In the report of water resource carrying capacity in Hubei in2010, it has the biggest capacity of membership grade in comparison to other peers which is estimated to be stronger than0.5. It means there is still potential water resource carrying capacity in Hubei to be explored, despite water resource and subordinate social and economic system are not well compatible. In an evaluation of Hubei’s detection from2000to2015, it comes to clarity that the subordinate water resource system sprints to strong carrying capacity status, while on the other hand, the subordinate social and economic system linger between in weak and relatively weak status. Accompany with time undergoing, water resource is more capable of being compatible. The biological system holds up in strong carrying capacity. Apparently Hubei’s water resource carrying capacity is convinced in between strong and relatively strong. The oscillation of capacity level tends to shrink and converge to a more constant status. By generating the distribution of each subordinate system in a fuzzy evaluation, in the years of profuse water supply, Xiangyang, Jingmen, Xiaogan and Suizhou have lower water resource carrying capacity. As a consequence, it is appropriate to adjust and balance water allocation from strong water resource carrying capacity cities to low water resource carrying capacity cities. Feasible suggestions of reinforcing water resource carrying capacity are encouraged according to practical experiment.Chapter6, Conclusion and Prospect. This chapter boils down to the main conclusions, inspects some flaws of the article, and suggests orientation for the further research.