The Study Of Water Resources Optimal Distribution In Shule River Watershed

Water resource is an important constraint factor of the development of human society and economic in arid region. With the population explosion and the rapid development of social and economy, the increasing obtrusively inconsistency between water supply and demand causes the maladjustment of environment system, and counteracts our economical develop seriously. So it is a matter of cardinal significance to optimal distributes regional water resources so as to achieve the harmonious and unified development of the economic, social and environment. Shule River shed lies in the western end of Hexi corridor, which is a natural water shortage area. This paper studies how to optimize the allocation of water resources in Shule River.Firstly, we collect and collate the relatively water resources information and data of the river basin over the years. Based on the information and data, we evaluate the quantity, quality and trends of water resources in Shule River. And then, we analyze the available water quantity and water supply-demand situation in order to providing basic data for optimization of limited water resources in study area.Secondly, we use grey prediction method and index analytical method to predict water demand quantity of all water-using sectors in 2015,2020, and 2030. Comparing the prediction results, we find that the metabolism GM (1,1) model of grey prediction method could fit the initial data better, while index analytical method is simple to use. The prediction results in two methods are in the same order of magnitude, while the relative error of tertiary is highest, and the relative errors increase with the predict time. In this paper, domestic and eco-environment water demand predation uses the index analytical method, and the other sectors water demand use the grey prediction method.Finally, the theory of optimal allocation of water resources is introduced. Based on the different water resources. this paper analyzes the restrained conditions of decision-making variables, and distributes the limited water resources in Shule River using multi-objection optimization formula. The multi-objective optimal allocation of water resources means the greatest benefit to be brought to the water consumers, including industrial and agricultural development, tertiary development, domestic and eco-environment, etc. Applying the goal attaining function of Matlab toolbox to different optimum scenarios, this paper analyzes and puts forward different optimization scenarios in accordance with the development of Shule River basin's society, eco-environment, and the national economy. The optimization scenarios may further improve water environmental quality, and obtain the best benefit from the limited water resources. The application of this methodology to the Shule River basin shows that the methodology can be utilized as a tool, which could promote the understanding of water users to achieve maximum warfare in a river basin and minimize the potential demand caused by water demand. It can promote harmony and sustainable development of environment, society and economy in Shule River basin.