Study On Optimized Allocation Of Water Resource In Shule Basin

Water shortage make the ecological environment fragile for little precipitation and evaporation in Shule River Basin which located in the western of Hexi Corridor in Gansu Province. Little precipitation, evaporation and water shortage make the ecological environment fragile in Shule River Basin which located in the western of Hexi Corridor in Gansu Province. With the development of economy, the consumption of water resources increased rapidly and ecological water diverted lead to environment deterioration gradually. Rational development and utilization of water resources plays an important role in the harmonious development of Shule Basin.This paper analysis the river runoff, climate change and precipitation trends in the past 50 years systematic through investigating the development and utilization of water resources in the Shule basin, and the trends of population groowth, economic development and industrial structure were forecasted by classic demographic, economic model (multiple regression analysis, the Malthusian model, Logistic model, MA model, GM(1,1), and BP artificial neural network. The result show that the utilization of water resource is more than 80% at present, which is much higher than the high-risk warning line (40%) and also higher than the recommend level of 70% less than form experts. At the same time, a lot of pressures have been produced in Shule river basin.In accordance with its development trend which indicates that: River Water Resource Development in 2010 is to about 90%, and will get close to the degree of 80% in 2030, As a result, a reasonable optimal allocation of water resources is inperative.Optimal allocation of water resources adopt multi-objective programming to achieve:Qualitative and quantitative calculation of the sector unit water consumption of social, economic and environmental benefits, Maximize the overall efficiency of water resources as the goal, as the link between water resources supply and demand. The water demand forecast as the maximize value, Reference to the relevant norms of the industry sectors and indicators to determine the minimum value as constraints to solve the multi-objective problem and the water recourse in various departments at different years. The Optimal allocation of water resources in the basin is that:Under the utilization of water resource degree less than 70% conditions, the domestic water consumption by the 0.36 million m3 gradually increased to 0.50 million m3, the agricultural water consumption decreased from the 12.73 million m3 to 10.52 million m3, the industrial water consumption remained between the 0.70 million m3 to 0.75 million m3, the tertiary water consumption from the 0.24 million m3 gradually increased 0.41 million m3, the ecological water consumption increased from the 2.49 million m3 to 4.52 million m3. This Configuration results reflect the position of agriculture, the economic benefits of industry, maintain the stability of social, and achieve the purpose of sustainable development. The ecological and domestic water consumption just meets the predicted minimum targets because of low overall efficiency. With the development of economic, the advances in technology, the agricultural water consumption will further reduce, the domestic and ecological water consumption will further increase, and the water resources allocation will be more inclined to social and ecological benefits.