Financial Risk Of Construction Project And Analysis Of The Impact On Project Schedule

Funding risks of construction project become more and more prominent, and emerge more and more dynamic and uncertainty in the current turbulent economic environment at domestic and foreign. Occurrence of funding risks also significantly influences project progress. Therefore, accurately predicting and assessing funding risks is important to finish the entire project schedule for the construction project. Quantitative analysising factors of funding risks and estimating the influence degree of project schedule by funding risks is research purpose. The following three aspects of the main research work:Firstly, this thesis has determined the source of factors of funding risks and seven main factors of funding risks by the methods of literature research and questionnaire survey. including: not timely paid of progress payment, the smaller proportion of the progress payments, not paid in time of engineering balance due, the introduction of the national macro-control policies, irresistible natural disasters, rework because of the quality of the project, the construction unit in the low-priced tender contracted projects.Secondly, this thesis has builded Bayesian networks of construction project funding and progress to estimate the probability of the risk occurring and the degree of impact on the project schedule by theoretical modeling method. The results show that, the probability of funding risks is larger in the case of no risk avoidance measures, the probability of construction projects completed is lower in the influence of funding risks, that is a important reason of uncompleted construction projects in time.Thirdly, this thesis has explained the practical application of risk management of construction project funding and project schedule by the method of Bayesian network modeling with Hugin Lite and a case of an airport catering building in Jiangsu province. The case verifies effectiveness of solving predicting the occurrence probability of funding risks and the uncertainty on the project schedule with Bayesian networks.This thesis has provided a new thinking of theoretical research on funding risk and schedule risk, and it has the practical value to avoid funding risks and controlling effective of funding risks on project schedule. At the same time, the using of Bayesian networks also provides a efficient method to solve the problem of managing project funding and schedule with more and more uncertain factors.