Application Study On Flood Stage Routing With Forecast Period Using Projection Pursuit

Hydrology system is a complicated system that is affected by many factors. The nonlinear and non-normal features often exist in the system. And they bring many problems to flood stage routing. At present, the methods of flood stage routing in reach still have many shortages, such as low precision, no or shorter forecast period etc.The Muskingum routing model formed with the sum of five parts has a half of travel time and is a better method in flood stage routing to date. The Projection Pursuit is used in flood stage routing, which is first. It can make full use of the nonlinear and non-normal features in stage information and attain better result with higher precision, longer forecast period梠ne or longer travel times.With the comparison of two models on the flood stage routing in reach from Wanzhou to Yichang, it is verified that the Projection Pursuit model is better than the other both precision and the length of forecast period.