| The building and running of the Vessel Traffic System (VTS) in the countries all over the world have been improved the safety of water traffic and efficiency, and have protected the environment of water area, which has taken great benefits to public and economy. On the other hand, the establishing of the VTS costs a lot and differentiate with each other level. So, in order to decrease waste, it is important to determine which level it should be before the establishing.Now, we have found some ways to grade the VTS along the coast, but have not solved the same problem in the inland river. At there we just use the method of the coast through accordingly modification. With the development of the VTS in the inland river, it is urgent to find a proper way to decide its level.In the research of the level deciding in the inland river, there is not much information and there has obvious difference between the coast and the inland river. Wuhan administer area has a length of 494 km. It is a narrow waterway. In some places, the width of it is only about 80 meters. It is very necessary to establish VTS and it will improve the safety of the traffic. How to grade the VTS in the Wuhan administer area is the main propose of this thesis. We will introduce the method to you step by step.First, introduce the basic situation of the Wuhan administer area, and find the patterns and the causes of the maritime accidents through the related analysis method of GREY System Theory, then find out the factors that cause the accidents.Second, through the first expert investigation and the result of accidents analysis, select 6factors from the 31 factors that reflect the need of the VTS.Third, analyze the 6 factors with AHP method and compute the proportion of each one. Then use the research data of Wuhan administer area, and get the evaluate value of each level.Fourth, according to grade method of the coast, divide the manage degreeinto 5 levels.At last, based on the second expert investigation, calculate the function under the jurisdiction and get the evaluate result through Fuzzy Theory.From relative research work of this thesis, we can get below conclusion:1 . Making certain the situation of hydrology and meteorological phenomena. These factors play a very important role on the traffic safety. It is the basic of grading the VTS to analyze these factors.2 Finding out the main dangerous factors and the main causes of maritime accidents in the Wuhan administer area. In order to make the VTS adapt to the situation of the Wuhan administer area, we must take the analysis of maritime accidents, and this is the only way to find out the proper factors that is used to grade the VTS.3 In addition to find out factors of grading, we must include the criterion of each factor. Each factor plays a different role in the grading and in the traffic safety. Only do it this way can we make the grading reasonable.4 Drawing a conclusion of the level of the VTS in Wuhan administer area, and this is the final object of this thesis.With the analysis result, we can know the traffic situation of the Wuhan administer area is normal dangerous and the proper level of the VTS we want to build is grade 2. According to the traffic situation and danger condition, VTS should be built in Wuhan administer area now. From the analysis process we can see that this research method can also be used in other water area in the inland river. |
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