Study On Modeling Of Load Forecasting For Distribution Network Planning

Load forecasting is a fundamental item in the distribution network planning. Its accuracy has great influence on the quality of power system planning and the safe and economical operation of the distribution network. It is an important research field to choose proper methods to improve the accuracy of load forecasting.Not only the load magnitudes forecasting including electricity consumption and the peak load of the district, but also special load forecasting (SLF) should be done for the load forecasting of the distribution network planning, so that the standard of the new equipment and the time and location of installation could be decided, and the reasonable planning could be made. Therefore, this paper introduces the load forecasting theory systematically firstly, and addresses the methods of load forecasting for distribution network planning in detail. All these methods are compared by analyzing examples, and the merits and demerits of these methods are given. Then a SLF method based on fuzzy reasoning and multi-objective programming is presented. This help to make the planning more economical and reasonable. At last, on the basis of algorithms study, a software package named "Load Forecasting System for Distribution Network Planning" is developed, with functions of load magnitudes forecasting and SLF. In this software package, a model library for load forecasting, with consists of plenty of models, is established. Analysis shows that the presented software package has friendly man-machine interface, proper model "library and high accuracy of forecasting results. So this software package can be a good assistant tool for the distribution system planners.