| As the International Safety Management (ISM) code came into force and became compulsory for Chinese ocean-going ships, the safety management level of Chinese shipping companies have been improved via the establishment, implementation and maintenance of Safety Management System (SMS). In the course of audit of the SMS implemented by the competent authority, the content includes two fields: the conformity and the effectiveness. The first is to judge whether the SMS is in conformity with the ISM code and other involved laws and rules, whether the safety management activity and result is in conformity with the articles of the SMS. It is easy to realize. The second is to evaluate the effectiveness of the SMS in the company safety management. It is a litter hard to realize. At present, this job mainly depends on the knowledge and the experience of the auditor. It is a qualitative method. There is not a quantitative standard or method yet. This paper intend to explore the quantitative method of evaluation of SMS effectiveness, and establish a standard or method in quantitative evaluation of SMS effectiveness at last.Probability statistics, fuzzy mathematics theory and grey system theory are the most common methods of studying indefinite systems. SMS is a system with complex structure and its components interacting unclearly. Furthermore, the data is very little while evaluating the SMS effectiveness. Therefore, it is the most suitable to evaluate SMS effectiveness by using grey system theory.This paper is made up of six chapters. Chapter 1 introduces the production of the ISM code and the meaning and audit of the SMS. Chapter 2 discusses the determination of evaluation method of SMS. Chapter 3 chooses the evaluated indicators of the SMS effectiveness. On the basis of the analysis on the result of the SMS, this paper chose four evaluated indicators: the average rate of ship accident, the average number of inspection deficiencies per ship, the number of the non-conformities in the internal audit, the number of the deficiencies from the external audit. As a example, chapter 4 analyzes the indicators of HubeiQingChuan shipping company's SMS by using grey association analysis method. By using grey classification analysis method, chapter 5 classifies the recent several years' effectiveness of QingChuan shipping company's SMS respectively and give a quantitative evaluation. The effectiveness of QingChuan shipping company's SMS is good in 2001 and 2002, nearly qualified in 2000 and 2004 and not qualified in 2003. Chapter 6 predicts the effectiveness of QingChuan shipping company's SMS in 2005 by using systematic grey prediction.This paper discusses how to evaluate the SMS effectiveness by using grey system theory regarding Hubei QingChuan shipping company as a example and supplies a quantitative method of evaluation of the SMS effectiveness.
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